Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

retail

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.9.21

  • Delta crushes August retail; exercise and look pretty at home.

    Local government infrastructure finally helping out production…

    …And helping stabilise FAI too

    A lull in the housing market

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure Boost may not Come in Time to Salvage Q3

Industrial production growth slowed sharply in July; no signs yet of infrastructure picking up the slack.

Delta is adding to the recent misery in retail sales; a Q3 GDP growth downgrade is now on the cards.

Japan's economy stabilised in the second quarter despite the rolling Covid hit and soft lockdowns.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16.8.21

Thailand defies gravity in Q2… Q3 will be a much different story

Upstream core price pressures are still bubbling under the surface in India

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.7.21

Jury still out on Q2 GDP growth.

Retail sales stabilised in June, but the recovery remains on hold.

Industrial production still lacks infrastructure drivers.

Infrastructure spending will soon turn around.

Home price rises holding up against slowing loan growth.

The PBoC’s smaller MLF injection confirms that the RRR cut was not an easing.

2021 BoK hike remains on the table, despite recent Covid spike

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Industrial Production, FAI, Retail Sales, May, China 2021

May IP weakness is about supply problems and the lagged effect of weak local government demand.

FAI still struggling under weak infrastructure investment.

Retail sales stumble while switching lanes.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 June 2021 The BoJ has Ended QE Already, the Loan Programme will be Extended

The BoJ meeting this week could be live, with an extension of the Special Funds Supplying operation, likely to March next year, from September currently.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 June 2021 Local Government Spending is Reviving... Begrudgingly

We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date, year-over-year rate for fixed assets all slowing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.5.21

Industrial production continues to correct down m/m 

FAI growth continues to slow 

Retail sales correct, but recovery still on track 

Inflation is driving investors back to housing 

Japan’s machine tool orders continue to offer hope for global IP 

Peter BennettChina+

13 May 2021 Fiscal Hawkishness is Tightening Monetary Conditions

M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 May 2021 The PBoC's Digital Yuan is Just Another Way of Keeping Control

We have to admit that the speed of China's recovery outpaced our initial expectations last year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 Apr 2021 BoJ Forecasts are Due an Upgrade; Lowballing is the Order of the Day

The BoJ likely will leave policy unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday next week, following the policy review in March.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 Apr 2021 IP and Retail Sales Kept Q1 GDP Growth High, Quarter-on-Quarter

Covering China is often like being a data detective, fitting together the pieces of the puzzle to try to work out what is going on.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault,