Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 AUGUST 2022: A sharper loss of momentum than expected for China

Manufacturing struggles despite subsidies 

An even bigger miss for retail sales 

Real estate still a killer for FAI 

Monetary easing won’t do anything 

A modest rebound for Japan in Q2 

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

20 July 2022 China Covid Cases Climb, Putting the Economic Recovery at Risk

Little over a month after reopening, China’s economy is again threatened by rising Covid cases.

Restrictions are tightening in response to flare-ups across China, and are already hitting activity.

Slow progress with vaccinations means zero-Covid seems likely to persist into 2024.

Craig BothamChina+

18 July 2022 A False Dawn in June Data, as China's Economy Shrinks in Q2

Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.

June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.

Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JULY 2022: Official GDP - somewhat surprisingly - confirms a terrible Q2 for China

More of a slowdown for GDP than expected

A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading

Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth

Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment

The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

1 July 2022 A Proper Reopening Bounce for China in June

Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.

The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.

More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

16 June 2022 China's Reopening Rebound Gets Going, but Watch New Cases

Reopening has proceeded faster than we expected in China, prompting a larger immediate rebound.

Industrial production in particular has benefitted from a return to normal, and an export backlog.

Subsidies helped to prop up retail sales, but likely reallocated, rather than boosted, consumption.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JUNE 2022: Chinese activity beat expectations in May

Clearing the export backlog boosted industrial production

Flickers of stimulus in FAI data

Chinese consumers prove more resilient than expected

Craig BothamChina+

17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 MAY 2022: A brutal April for Chinese activity, thanks to zero-Covid

The workshop of the world closed down in April

A bloodbath for retail sales

Zero-Covid restrictions prevented stimulus rollout

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 APR 2022: Slightly better than expected, but worse to come for China

A dilemma for policymakers

Factory closures weighed on industrial production

Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer

The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out

Craig BothamChina+

11 Apr 2022 Omicron Should Weigh Heavily on Chinese Q1 GDP, in Theory

We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten. 

Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked. 

Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far. 

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

  • Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
  • The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
  • Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Mar 2022 Stronger than Expected, but for How Long, as Headwinds Build

  • China's state sector led a rebound in economic growth in early 2022, as investment surged.
  • Data is always noisy at this time of year, however, and the surge is driven by frontloading spending.
  • Growth will likely slow by April, given soaring Covid cases and base effects, prompting more easing.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.03.2022: Chinese data outstrips all expectations

A state-led recovery in investment...

…likely rippled through to the rest of the economy    

Is the data reliable?

Craig BothamChina+

4 Mar 2022 No End Yet to Zero-Covid, Despite Viral Fatigue for Chinese Services

  • Press headlines around the end of China's zero- Covid stance have generated great excitement...
  • ...But in reality, the policy shift looks as distant as ever, even if clarity is to be welcomed.
  • Services will face persistent headwinds this year, boosting reliance on state support for growth.

Craig BothamChina+

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