18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

• Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
• The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
• ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

• China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
• The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
• We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.12.21 - Slower growth in November as infrastructure bides its time

The property sector slowdown intensified in November

Investment struggles, led by real estate

Industrial production improves but still underwhelms

The Singles Day hangover hits retail sales

Liquidity day from the PBoC

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

• Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
• Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
• Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Dec 2021 China Finds Seasonal Cheer in November Inflation

• Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
• ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
• Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

• China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
• Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
• The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Fixed asset investment pulled down by property

Industry’s turnaround is built on a narrow base, but it should broaden

Retail sales are likely enjoying a false dawn

Craig BothamChina+

15 Nov 2021 Logistical Pressures Build as Covid Reaches Another Port City

• China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
• ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
• The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

• China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
• We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
• Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Nov 2021 China Experiences the Wrong Sort of Green Growth

• Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
• Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
• A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

• The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
• Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
• Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

• Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
• Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
• Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

• A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
• Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
• The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

• Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
• ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
• Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

• The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
• Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
• Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Sept 2021 Evergrande: No Big Bailout, but no Lehman Moment, Either

• Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets...
• …But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment.
• Beijing can contain the worst, but the blow to land prices and confidence means slower growth ahead.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+