Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
- Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
- The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
- Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
- The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.
The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.
Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.
We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
- ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
- We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.
- Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
- A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
- Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
- Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
- Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
- We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.
- The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
- Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
- Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
- A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
- The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
- Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.
- Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
- The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
- Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.
- The Chinese authorities continue to battle the underlying causes of the energy crisis.
- A combination of tariff hikes and coal price reductions has brought an end to shortages, for now...
- ... but heading into the winter, heating needs will jump, renewing pressure on generators.
- Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
- Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
- Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.
- Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
- ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
- Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.