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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

real economy

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

  • October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
  • ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
  • China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

  • Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
  • ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
  • We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

  • China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
  • Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
  • The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Oct 2021 Renminbi Gains are Unlikely to Provoke a Strong Response

  • Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
  • The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
  • Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

  • Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
  • Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
  • Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

  • Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
  • The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
  • Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

  • The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
  • Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
  • Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2021 Evergrande and PBoC Scramble to Reassure, but Doubts Remain

  • Evergrande's vague statement won’t cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now...
  • ...More will be needed from both parties, though, particularly with dollar debt default still looming.
  • BoJ green policy has potential, but it needs fiscal support to be realised.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

31 Aug 2021 Covid Whack-a-Mole Means a Nasty August and September

  • Data in the next few months will force the authori- ties to reconsider zero Covid tolerance...
  • ... But translating that into an official shift in the policy stance could take time.
  • In the meantime, the August and September PMIs looked exposed.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

27 Aug 2021 The BoK Takes a Calculated Risk, to Re-focus on High Household Debt

  • The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
  • Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
  • ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 Aug 2021 China Needs Much More than the Mixed Trade Signals from NE Asia

  • The latest data from developed Asia show that trade is unlikely to rescue China from its domestic woes.
  • The slowdown in Japanese export growth is July isn't all down to base effects; momentum is waning.
  • Korea's early data look grim on the surface, but the first ten days of August tend to be a lull.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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