21 June 2022 Monetary Policy Remains On Hold in China, Despite the Slowdown

Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.

More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.

Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

• Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
• ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
• Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Mar 2022 Korean Exports Falter as Demand and Supply Issues Bite

• Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
• War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
• The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Feb 2022 Japanese Inflation is Creeping Higher, but the Target is Still Distant

• Tokyo CPI inflation reached its highest level since December 2019 in February, and will climb further.
• The target is still unlikely to be breached, however, and this is not the type of inflation the BoJ wants.
• The BoK remains hawkish, despite holding rates, and the hiking cycle has further to run.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Jan 2022 Chinese Property Sector Update, Keep a Cool Head on Easing

• China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape.
• Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging.
• The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Jan 2022 Inflation Risks on the Rise in Japan, but Not Enough to Change Policy

• The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
• Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
• Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

• Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
• The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
• ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

• China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
• Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
• Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

• Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
• Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
• Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

20 Dec 2021 The BoJ Takes Another Step Back, but Don't Call it Hawkish

• The BoJ kept its main policy tools unchanged in December, but tinkered around the edges.
• An announced reduction in corporate debt purchases had already begun in practice.
• The taper is offset by an extension of SME lending, which has been a bigger balance sheet driver.

Craig BothamChina+