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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Preliminary Korean data gives reason for hope on trade, despite the slowdown
PBOC stands pat, but easing is on the way - just not for the property sector
Vague Evergrande statement won’t cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now
BoJ offers to bankroll effort against climate change
Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...
... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.
The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.
The zero-tolerance approach to Covid has been a part of China's success story...
... It's now a hurdle for valuations to climb; a shift toward Covid management is needed...
... That could catalyse a behavioural transition from savings normalisation to active wealth run-down.
Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.
Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.
Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.
Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...
...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.
Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.
Our analysis reveals that GDP growth in the first half may have been significantly stronger than billed.
In particular, the household savings rate dropped sharply, back to pre-pandemic trends.
Households now need to run down wealth, if the recovery is to continue.
From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.
In one line: Back to regular programming.
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