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- Evergrande, and a nudge from upstairs, seem to have forced the PBoC's hand.
- A 50 bps cut to the RRR frees up funds to deal with the clean-up operation, not supercharge growth.
- More cuts will be needed, with growth likely to remain soft in Q1 of next year.
Preliminary Korean data gives reason for hope on trade, despite the slowdown
PBOC stands pat, but easing is on the way - just not for the property sector
- Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
- Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
- We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
- Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
- The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
- Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.
- Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
- China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
- The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover
- Evergrande's vague statement won’t cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now...
- ...More will be needed from both parties, though, particularly with dollar debt default still looming.
- BoJ green policy has potential, but it needs fiscal support to be realised.
Vague Evergrande statement won’t cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now
BoJ offers to bankroll effort against climate change
- Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets...
- …But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment.
- Beijing can contain the worst, but the blow to land prices and confidence means slower growth ahead.
Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...
... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.
The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.
- China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
- ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
- Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
- PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
- ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
- Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- The PBoC signalled a needed RRR cut
- The PBoC signalled a needed RRR cut
- The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
- Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
- ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.
- The BoK puts financial imbalances first
- We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
- Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
- Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault