Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
- A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
- Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.
In one line: a messy quarter hit by multiple transitory shocks
- China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
- Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
- Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.
- A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
- The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
- Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.
- Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
- Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
- Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.
- A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
- Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
- The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.
- The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
- Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
- Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.
- Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
- Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
- Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.
- Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
- China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
- The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover
Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...
... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.
The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.
- M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
- M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
- Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
- Delta demand and front-loading
- China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July.
- Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data still point to a sharp correction.
- FX reserves fell only marginally in August, suggest- ing a bounce-back in capital outflows.
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
- Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
- ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.
- We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
- Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
- Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault
Industrial production growth slowed sharply in July; no signs yet of infrastructure picking up the slack.
Delta is adding to the recent misery in retail sales; a Q3 GDP growth downgrade is now on the cards.
Japan's economy stabilised in the second quarter despite the rolling Covid hit and soft lockdowns.