CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.12.21 - Slower growth in November as infrastructure bides its time

The property sector slowdown intensified in November

Investment struggles, led by real estate

Industrial production improves but still underwhelms

The Singles Day hangover hits retail sales

Liquidity day from the PBoC

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Craig BothamChina+

10 Dec 2021 China Finds Seasonal Cheer in November Inflation

• Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
• ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
• Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Dec 2021 Bottlenecks Continued to Ease on the Eve of Omicron

• Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
• Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
• The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

• October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
• ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
• China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

• Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
• Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
• ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

• Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
• ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
• We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

• China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
• Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
• The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Fixed asset investment pulled down by property

Industry’s turnaround is built on a narrow base, but it should broaden

Retail sales are likely enjoying a false dawn

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

• China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
• We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
• Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

• The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
• Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
• Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Oct 2021 A Brief Interlude for Chinese Industrial Profits

• Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
• ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
• Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

• Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
• Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
• Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

• A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
• Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
• The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

• Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
• ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
• Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

• The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
• Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
• China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

• Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
• Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
• Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+