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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Manufacturing struggles despite subsidies
An even bigger miss for retail sales
Real estate still a killer for FAI
Monetary easing won’t do anything
A modest rebound for Japan in Q2
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.
June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.
Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.
More of a slowdown for GDP than expected
A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading
Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth
Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment
The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming
We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.
The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.
Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.
Reopening has proceeded faster than we expected in China, prompting a larger immediate rebound.
Industrial production in particular has benefitted from a return to normal, and an export backlog.
Subsidies helped to prop up retail sales, but likely reallocated, rather than boosted, consumption.
Clearing the export backlog boosted industrial production
Flickers of stimulus in FAI data
Chinese consumers prove more resilient than expected
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.
Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.
China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.
The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.
Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.
Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
A dilemma for policymakers
Factory closures weighed on industrial production
Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer
The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
China's services sector suffered a heavy blow in March, as collateral damage in the war with Covid.
Shanghai is paying dearly for its earlier relaxed approach to rising cases, and faces a long lockdown.
Shanghai's mistake will encourage officials to double down on zero-Covid, despite the costs.
A state-led recovery in investment...
…likely rippled through to the rest of the economy
Is the data reliable?
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