Pantheon Macroeconomics
Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Winter has arrived for the northeast Asian economies, hit by faltering domestic and global demand.
Korean exports declined sharply in November, with dramatic drops in shipments to China and Japan.
Manufacturing PMIs show a broad, synchronised cooling in China, Japan and Korea.
China’s PMIs for November show mounting economic pressure as Covid cases surge.
Supply-chain issues are nowhere near as bad as Q2, as local governments seek to target restrictions.
The services sector is suffering most from pandemic restrictions, though even construction is slowing.
The BoK hiked the policy rate by only 25 basis points, concerned about growth as well as inflation.
Governor Rhee would not give a timeline for rate cuts, even as the Bank cut its 2023 growth outlook.
Japan’s flash PMIs for November indicated a continued economic downturn, after the Q3 GDP fall.
Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.
Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.
Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.
Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.
PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.
China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.
Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.
Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.
Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.
Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.
Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.
The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.
More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence