CHINA+ DATA WRAP 03.12.21 - Covid is still a problem for China's services sector, even before Omicron

The property sector remains under pressure

Services activity remains hostage to the ravages of the virus

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

• Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
• The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
• Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30.11.21 - Surveys point to upside surprises for activity, with an infrastructure splurge ahead

The end of the energy crisis boosts manufacturing

Construction leads a rebound in non-manufacturing amidst infrastructure push

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24.11.21 Japan's PMI adds to positive momentum

Japan remains set for a healthy rebound in Q4

Chinese property sector update

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 03.11.21

Disparity with official survey probably reflects geographic spread of latest Covid outbreaks

The PBoC lifts its foot from the brake ever so slightly

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

• The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
• Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
• Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.11.21

Intensifying energy crisis weighed on manufacturing activity in October

Rising Covid cases once again disrupted the services sector

Base effects and energy support Korean exports

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.10.21

• A return to headline inflation for Japan masks ongoing core deflation.

  Surprising strength from the manufacturing PMI.

  The axe is yet to fall for Evergrande.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

• The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
• Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
• China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8.10.21

• Optimism around Covid lifts the service sector

  Stress continues for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

• China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
• ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
• Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.10.21

• Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites

  Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30.9.21

• Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites
• Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

• Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
• China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
• The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, August; Manufacturing PMI, Japan, September 2021

• In one line: Japan’s deflation remains beyond the BoJ’s control

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

• M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
• M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
• Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

• Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
• FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
• We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

• Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
• ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
• ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3.9.21

• Downside risks materialising
• Hopes for a more stimulatory successor

Peter BennettChina+