Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- China Keeps Lending Rates on Hold, Monitoring the Recovery
- Japanese Inflation Edges Up on Higher Energy Costs
- Waiting for the Reopening Phase
- New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
- ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
- We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.
- In one line: it’s too early for monetary easing in China
- Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
- Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
- China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.
- Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
- ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
- The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.
- Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
- We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.
- China is still caught in the liquidity trap, but
policymakers have eased some artificial constraints.
- We will be watching the revived PSL facility for signs that policy support is being scaled up aggressively.
- The BoK delivered a bumper hike, but accompanied it with dovish messaging, as it looks for an off-ramp.
- The latest quarterly surveys from the PBoC suggest
only a marginal improvement in sentiment in Q3.
- Policy efforts have done little to ease the liquidity trap, with households especially gloomy.
- Zero-Covid policies have turned more aggressive ahead of the Congress, choking off recovery.
- Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
- The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
- Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.
- Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
- The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
- We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.
Japanese exports were worse than they looked in August
The PBoC withdraws liquidity again
- Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
- Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
- ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.
- China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
economic momentum in August.
- Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
- The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.
- The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
- The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
- The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.