Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

pboc

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.01.22 - Japanese exports slow and Chinese rates fall

External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects

Bank lending rates follow the MLF down

Craig BothamChina+

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

  • China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
  • Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
  • Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

  • China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
  • The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
  • We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Jan 2022 Energy Leads Japanese Inflation Higher in December

  • Tokyo CPI inflation reached a two-year high in December, thanks largely to energy prices.
  • Inflation will climb further yet, but will still fall short of the BoJ's 2% target.
  • Chinese reserves data show the PBoC has been leaning against renminbi appreciation.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

  • Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
  • Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
  • Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.12.21 - Slower growth in November as infrastructure bides its time

The property sector slowdown intensified in November

Investment struggles, led by real estate

Industrial production improves but still underwhelms

The Singles Day hangover hits retail sales

Liquidity day from the PBoC

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Japan's Tankan survey points to an improvement in Q4, particularly outside manufacturing.

Success in containing Covid, for now, has boosted the services sector, and smaller firms are reviving.

Inflationary pressures continued to build in Q4, but will not disturb BoJ policy yet.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

  • Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
  • Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
  • Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: RRR Cut, China, December

In one line: A RRR cut puts the lie to PBoC assurances that property financing would be unaffected by Evergrande’s implosion

Craig BothamChina+

7 Dec 2021 Under Duress, and Trying to Sound Upbeat, the PBoC Acts

  • Evergrande, and a nudge from upstairs, seem to have forced the PBoC's hand.
  • A 50 bps cut to the RRR frees up funds to deal with the clean-up operation, not supercharge growth.
  • More cuts will be needed, with growth likely to remain soft in Q1 of next year.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.11.21 Hope for growth from the PBoC and Korean exports

Preliminary Korean data gives reason for hope on trade, despite the slowdown

PBOC stands pat, but easing is on the way - just not for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

  • The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
  • ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
  • ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 05.11.21

Kaisa serves as a reminder that property stresses remain, even with Evergrande out of the spotlight

Diffuse outbreak puts zero-Covid to the test ahead of the Sixth Plenum

Craig BothamChina+

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