Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

pboc

PM Data Note: PBoC Policy Decision, China, March

  • China Keeps Lending Rates on Hold, Monitoring the Recovery

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Data Note: CPI Japan December

  • Japanese Inflation Edges Up on Higher Energy Costs

Duncan WrigleyChina+

12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

  • New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
  • ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
  • We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Note: China PBoC Decision December

  • In one line: it’s too early for monetary easing in China

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Korean Exports Indicate Global Economy is in Poor Shape

  • Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
  • Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
  • China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

  • Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
  • ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
  • The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Xi's Speech at Congress Signals Policy Continuity

  • Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
  • We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
  • The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The PBoC Tries Another Tool in an Effort to Escape the Liquidity Trap

  • China is still caught in the liquidity trap, but
    policymakers have eased some artificial constraints.
  • We will be watching the revived PSL facility for signs that policy support is being scaled up aggressively.
  • The BoK delivered a bumper hike, but accompanied it with dovish messaging, as it looks for an off-ramp.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Little Relief for China's Economy in Q3, Despite Reopening

  • The latest quarterly surveys from the PBoC suggest
    only a marginal improvement in sentiment in Q3.
  • Policy efforts have done little to ease the liquidity trap, with households especially gloomy.
  • Zero-Covid policies have turned more aggressive ahead of the Congress, choking off recovery.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

  • Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
  • The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
  • Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

  • Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
  • The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
  • We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 SEPTEMBER 2022: Japanese exports were worse than they looked in August

Japanese exports were worse than they looked in August

The PBoC withdraws liquidity again

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

  • Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
    in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
  • Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
  • ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Zero-Covid is Weighing on Chinese Growth Once Again

  • China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
    economic momentum in August.
  • Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
  • The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Liquidity Trap is Creating All Sorts of Problems for the PBoC

  • The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
  • The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
  • The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence