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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

outlook

19 Jan 2022 Inflation Risks on the Rise in Japan, but Not Enough to Change Policy

  • The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
  • Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
  • Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Dec 2021 China Finds Seasonal Cheer in November Inflation

  • Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
  • ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
  • Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Oct 2021 The BoJ Turns Bearish on Near- Term Risks

  • No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
  • The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
  • Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28.10.21

  • BoJ turns more negative on growth, with risks to the downside

  • Inflation downgrade a chiefly technical matter

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

  • Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
  • The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
  • Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions Add to Transitory Inflation Pressures

  • A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
  • ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

  • The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
  • Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
  • Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence