Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
- Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
- Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.
Chinese economic growth faces multiple challenges in 2022
- Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
- ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
- Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
- The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
- Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.
- Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
- The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
- Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.
- A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
- Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
- The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.
- A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
- ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
- Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.
- The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
- Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
- Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.
- Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
- Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
- Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.