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No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured
Renewed market intervention a possibility
PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.
Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.
Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.
Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...
...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.
Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.
From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.
The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.
Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's.
The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.
We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date, year-over-year rate for fixed assets all slowing.
The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.
China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.
The PBoC has slowed up on the pace of tightening in recent months, with a question mark hanging over the economy.
M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%.
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