China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
markets
- Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
- ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
- Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.
Craig BothamChina+
- Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
- ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
- Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
- The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
- Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.
Craig BothamChina+
- Soaring energy prices will hit Chinese corporates harder than households, and Beijing will have to act.
- The PBoC will not be turning hawkish, despite the shock to inflation, instead boosting SME support.
- China's battle to support manufacturers is likely to renew tensions over its industrial policy this year.
Craig BothamChina+
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
- ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
- Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
- Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
- Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.
Craig BothamChina+
- China saw another huge current account surplus in Q4, but it is under increasing pressure.
- The support provided to China's external balance by the pandemic will fade further in 2022.
- The renminbi should weaken on a sustained basis in H2, though pressure could show as soon as Q2.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape.
- Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging.
- The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
- External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
- Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.
Craig BothamChina+
