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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

markets

29 Mar 2022 Weaker Chinese Profit Growth Heightens Political Risks

  • Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
  • ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
  • Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

  • Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
  • ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
  • Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

  • Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
  • The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
  • Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Mar 2022 The War in Ukraine Brings More Pain for Chinese Industry

  • Soaring energy prices will hit Chinese corporates harder than households, and Beijing will have to act. 
  • The PBoC will not be turning hawkish, despite the shock to inflation, instead boosting SME support. 
  • China's battle to support manufacturers is likely to renew tensions over its industrial policy this year. 

Craig BothamChina+

24 Feb 2022 Ukraine, Energy Prices a Bigger Worry than Awkwardness for China

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
  • ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
  • Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

  • Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
  • Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
  • Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Feb 2022 It's Clich├ęd, But Sometimes a Crisis Really is an Opportunity

  • China saw another huge current account surplus in Q4, but it is under increasing pressure.
  • The support provided to China's external balance by the pandemic will fade further in 2022.
  • The renminbi should weaken on a sustained basis in H2, though pressure could show as soon as Q2.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Jan 2022 Chinese Property Sector Update, Keep a Cool Head on Easing

  • China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape.
  • Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging.
  • The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

  • Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
  • External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
  • Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence