Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
- The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
- Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
- Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
- A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
- The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
- Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.
- Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
- The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
- Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.
- Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
- Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
- Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.
- A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
- Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
- The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.
- Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
- Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
- Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.
- Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
- China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
- The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover
- Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets...
- …But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment.
- Beijing can contain the worst, but the blow to land prices and confidence means slower growth ahead.
Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...
... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.
The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.
- M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
- M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
- Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
- ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.
- We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
- Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
- Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault