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China’s PMIs for November show mounting economic pressure as Covid cases surge.
Supply-chain issues are nowhere near as bad as Q2, as local governments seek to target restrictions.
The services sector is suffering most from pandemic restrictions, though even construction is slowing.
China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon.
The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate.
Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023.
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
China’s current account balance fell in Q2, despite strong trade balance figures.
The hit from the income account is unlikely to be repeated, but tailwinds are fading.
Export growth must slow, and compression of demand can’t go much further.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.
Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.
Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.
The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.
China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.
Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.
We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.
The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.
Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.
Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.
The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.
More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.
Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown.
Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak.
The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus.
Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.
The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.
Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.
China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.
Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.
Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.
Reopening has proceeded faster than we expected in China, prompting a larger immediate rebound.
Industrial production in particular has benefitted from a return to normal, and an export backlog.
Subsidies helped to prop up retail sales, but likely reallocated, rather than boosted, consumption.
Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.
Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.
Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.
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