12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

• New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
• ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
• We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 Dec 2022 China+ Monitor China Seeks Covid Exit Path, as PMIs Show Mounting Pressure

China’s PMIs for November show mounting economic pressure as Covid cases surge.

Supply-chain issues are nowhere near as bad as Q2, as local governments seek to target restrictions.

The services sector is suffering most from pandemic restrictions, though even construction is slowing.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Property Stimulus Starts to Show in the Data, but Much More is Needed

• August was another bad month for China’s property
  sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
• Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
• More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

• Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
• The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
• We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

• Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
• Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
• Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

• Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
• Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
• Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Zero-Covid is Weighing on Chinese Growth Once Again

• China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
  economic momentum in August.
• Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
• The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Probably Slowed Further in August, Say the PMIs

• Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
• Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
• The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.

Craig BothamChina+