Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

local government

23 July 2021 PBoC RRR Cut versus Fed Taper is a False Dichotomy

From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 July 2021 An RRR Cut Addresses Immediate Problems, it's not a Broad Easing

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 July 2021 Manufacturing PMI Points to Q2 GDP Growth Slowdown

The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4%...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

25 June 2021 The Larger PBoC Reverse Repo Injection is Just Housekeeping

The PBoC injected RMB 30B through seven-day reverse repos yesterday, breaking with the more than three-month stretch in which the Bank routinely injected just RMB 10B.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 June 2021 Local Government Spending is Reviving... Begrudgingly

We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 June 2021 Japan's Q1 GDP Upgrade was a Bit Disappointing Under the Surface

Japan has been a laggard in the vaccine race, with the virus keeping the economy on a weak footing into this quarter and the next.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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