China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
liquidity
- Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
- Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
- China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China has issued developer liquidity support policies to help restore confidence in the sector.
- Homebuyers should return to the market in a discerning fashion that favours good developers.
- The property sector recovery will still be geographically uneven and drawn out.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s October credit data were below expectations, due to a weak economy, the Party Congress...
- ...The Congress likely disrupted policy-based credit extension for quasi-fiscal projects.
- China is still caught in a liquidity trap, with credit growing more slowly than M2 again in October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
- We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
- The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China is still caught in the liquidity trap, but
policymakers have eased some artificial constraints.
- We will be watching the revived PSL facility for signs that policy support is being scaled up aggressively.
- The BoK delivered a bumper hike, but accompanied it with dovish messaging, as it looks for an off-ramp.
Craig BothamChina+
- The latest quarterly surveys from the PBoC suggest
only a marginal improvement in sentiment in Q3.
- Policy efforts have done little to ease the liquidity trap, with households especially gloomy.
- Zero-Covid policies have turned more aggressive ahead of the Congress, choking off recovery.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
- The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
- We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
- Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
- Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.
Craig BothamChina+
- Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
- Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
- Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.
Craig BothamChina+
- The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
- The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
- The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.
Craig BothamChina+
- Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
- ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
- Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.
Craig BothamChina+
