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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

liquidity

22 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Korean Exports Indicate Global Economy is in Poor Shape

  • Korean 20-day exports fell at a faster rate in November, in a further weakening of global demand.
  • Exports shrank to most major markets, with a dramatic decline in shipments to China.
  • China’s one-year loan prime rate was unchanged, as the PBoC relied on targeted liquidity measures.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China Unleashes 16 Measures for Developer Liquidity Support

  • China has issued developer liquidity support policies to help restore confidence in the sector.
  • Homebuyers should return to the market in a discerning fashion that favours good developers.
  • The property sector recovery will still be geographically uneven and drawn out.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Credit Data Disappoints, due to Weak Private Sector Demand

  • China’s October credit data were below expectations, due to a weak economy, the Party Congress...
  • ...The Congress likely disrupted policy-based credit extension for quasi-fiscal projects.
  • China is still caught in a liquidity trap, with credit growing more slowly than M2 again in October.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Xi's Speech at Congress Signals Policy Continuity

  • Xi's Congressional opening speech signalled no immediate shift from current policy settings.
  • We see zero-Covid policy continuing until at least mid-2023, if not later.
  • The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged, in implicit acknowledgement of China's liquidity trap.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The PBoC Tries Another Tool in an Effort to Escape the Liquidity Trap

  • China is still caught in the liquidity trap, but
    policymakers have eased some artificial constraints.
  • We will be watching the revived PSL facility for signs that policy support is being scaled up aggressively.
  • The BoK delivered a bumper hike, but accompanied it with dovish messaging, as it looks for an off-ramp.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Little Relief for China's Economy in Q3, Despite Reopening

  • The latest quarterly surveys from the PBoC suggest
    only a marginal improvement in sentiment in Q3.
  • Policy efforts have done little to ease the liquidity trap, with households especially gloomy.
  • Zero-Covid policies have turned more aggressive ahead of the Congress, choking off recovery.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

  • Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
  • The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
  • We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Stimulus Efforts are Visible, but China's Liquidity Trap Still Binds

  • Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
  • Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
  • Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Liquidity Trap is Creating All Sorts of Problems for the PBoC

  • The renminbi is weakening once again, in the face of dollar strength, but that’s not the full story.
  • The currency’s ability to defy gravity is fading, and this reflects the growing impotence of the PBoC.
  • The liquidity trap is closing tighter, creating an asymmetric profile of outcomes for monetary policy.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

  • Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
  • ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
  • Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence