Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown.
Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak.
The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus.
Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.
More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.
Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.
China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.
We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.
The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.
The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.
The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.
Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.
The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.
The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.
Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.
The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.
Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.
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