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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

labour

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

  • Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
  • Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
  • Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Zero-Covid is Weighing on Chinese Growth Once Again

  • China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
    economic momentum in August.
  • Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
  • The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor The Global Slowdown is Catching Up with Japan

Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.

Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.

Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Global Demand is Fading Fast, and China Won't Ride to the Rescue

Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.

China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.

Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

7 July 2022 Chinese Inflation will Climb, but the PBoC Won't React

Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.

Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.

The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

1 July 2022 A Proper Reopening Bounce for China in June

Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.

The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.

More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

24 June 2022 Japan's Domestic Recovery Starts to Lose Momentum

Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.

The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.

Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.

Craig BothamChina+

17 June 2022 Keep an Eye on Chinese Property, Amidst the Focus on Zero-Covid

China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.

Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.

Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

15 June 2022 Yen Intervention Looks More Likely, but Limited to Damage Control

Renewed yen weakness has drawn policymaker attention, with markets on alert for intervention.

Fighting currency weakness, however, is difficult, and Japan has few tools available.

Policymakers will likely be limited to fighting a rearguard action, reducing volatility on the way down.

Craig BothamChina+

10 June 2022 China's Trade Balance is Proving More Resilient than Expected

Chinese exports rebounded in May on the back of the country’s reopening, post-Omicron.

A more muted recovery of import growth meant that the trade balance rose further into surplus.

We still expect a decline in the surplus this year, but policy is working hard to mitigate this.

Craig BothamChina+

7 June 2022 The Metric Chinese Policymakers Care About Most is Yet to Recover

Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.

We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.

Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.

Craig BothamChina+

6 June 2022 China will Export Disinflation, not Inflation, despite New Stimulus

Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us. 

Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation. 

Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade. 

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

23 May 2022 Back Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Won't Change Tack

Japan’s CPI inflation is finally back above its 2% target, but this won’t prompt a change from the BoJ.

The surge has been driven almost entirely by base effects, rather than any pick-up in demand.

Falling rates in China, aimed at propping up the property sector, will have little effect.

Craig BothamChina+

17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

6 May 2022 China's Labour Market is Under Increasing Pressure

The Caixin Services PMI plummeted again in April, as the zero-Covid vice tightened further.

The employment picture is darkening rapidly, and will be a major worry for policymakers.

We are still waiting for a material shift in policy, even so; announcements so far contain nothing new.

Craig BothamChina+

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