CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

26 Nov 2021 An Expected Hike from the BoK, and Now a Long Pause

• The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.

  Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.

  We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25.11.21 Bank of Korea hikes as expected

Turning more hawkish, but caution remains the order of the day

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.11.21 Hope for growth from the PBoC and Korean exports

Preliminary Korean data gives reason for hope on trade, despite the slowdown

PBOC stands pat, but easing is on the way - just not for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.11.21

Intensifying energy crisis weighed on manufacturing activity in October

Rising Covid cases once again disrupted the services sector

Base effects and energy support Korean exports

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: 20-day Exports, Korea, October 2021

• In one line: Preliminary Korean data suggests relatively stable external backdrop

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.10.21

• Preliminary Korean data suggests relatively stable external backdrop

  Evergrande is back, but for how long?

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.10.21

• Preliminary Korean data suggests relatively stable external backdrop
• Evergrande is back, but for how long?

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Bank of Korea decision, October 2021

• In one line: No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12.10.21

• No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured

  Renewed market intervention a possibility

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

• China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
• ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
• Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Full-month exports, Korea, September 2021

• In one line: Korean exports may have benefitted from China’s energy problems despite a slowdown

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

• Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
• China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
• The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: 20-day exports, Korea, September 2021

• In one line: Trade stays strong despite correction

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23.9.21

Trade stays strong despite correction

Craig BothamChina+

3 Sept 2021 The Pitfalls and Positives for China in Korea's August Trade Numbers

• Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
• But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
• More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, August, China; Markit Manufacturing PMI, August, Korea 2021

• In one line: Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
• In one line: Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.9.21

• Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
• Korean exports suggest front-loading
• Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin
• Japan’s business capex means no Q2 GDP revisions

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

27 Aug 2021 The BoK Takes a Calculated Risk, to Re-focus on High Household Debt

• The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
• Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
• ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26.8.21

• The BoK puts financial imbalances first

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+