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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

japan gdp

2 Dec 2021 Bottlenecks Continued to Ease on the Eve of Omicron

  • Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
  • Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
  • The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

29 Nov 2021 An Energy Boost Quickens the Pulse of Japanese Inflation

  • Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
  • The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26.11.21 An upside surprise for Tokyo CPI, a new Covid wave starts in China

Stronger inflation reflects global supply pressures rather than domestic demand

Zero Covid is struggling in the colder months, and will create a renewed service sector drag

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24.11.21 Japan's PMI adds to positive momentum

Japan remains set for a healthy rebound in Q4

Chinese property sector update

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19.11.21 Few surprises from Japanese inflation

Another month dominated by transitory effects for Japanese prices

Kishida starts his new term with a Big Bang

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.11.21 Japanese exports slow, but there's cause for optimism

Look through the year-over-year headlines, and there’s hope among the weeds

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: GDP, Japan, Q3

In one line: a messy quarter hit by multiple transitory shocks 

Craig BothamChina+

9 Nov 2021 A Sprint to the Finish may Leave China's Trade Fading Next Year

  • China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
  • Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
  • Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Nov 2021 Japan Continues to Go its Own Way on Inflation

  • Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
  • ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
  • Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Japan, October 2021

  • In one line: surprising strength from the manufacturing PMI as services benefit from Covid easing

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.10.21

  • A return to headline inflation for Japan masks ongoing core deflation.

    Surprising strength from the manufacturing PMI.

    The axe is yet to fall for Evergrande.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

  • Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
  • Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
  • Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5.10.21

  • Japanese inflation lurches to life, but transitory factors still dominate

    Chinese property market stress spreads as another developer misses a dollar bond payment

    USTR leads with bark and no bite, for now

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

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China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence