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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

investment

17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 APR 2022: Slightly better than expected, but worse to come for China

A dilemma for policymakers

Factory closures weighed on industrial production

Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer

The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out

Craig BothamChina+

12 Apr 2022 Plenty of Scope, and Need, for Further Easing in China

China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.

The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.

Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.03.2022: Chinese data outstrips all expectations

A state-led recovery in investment...

…likely rippled through to the rest of the economy    

Is the data reliable?

Craig BothamChina+

8 Mar 2022 China's 2022 Work Report, Road Map or Wish-List

  • Slower export growth provides a taster of the challenges facing China's economy in 2022.
  • The Work Report—a government scorecard and road map—suggests a reliance on infrastructure...
  • ...but convincing local governments and banks to do their part is going to be difficult, and risky.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Feb 2022 A Brief Lull, but Japanese Inflation will Soon Jump, Relatively Speaking

  • A slowdown in Japanese inflation in January will be followed by a surge in March...
  • ...but the BoJ wants to see more sustainable price growth, and that means wage increases.
  • We see little that would indicate a change in the base rate this year; policy should remain easy.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

  • Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
  • Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
  • Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Feb 2022 A Trifecta of Disruptions Hits Chinese Activity in January

  • Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
  • Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
  • Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Jan 2022 Chinese Property Sector Update, Keep a Cool Head on Easing

  • China's property sector plummeted over the course of 2021, and nosedives are hard to escape.
  • Policy easing looks modest compared to previous cycles, in line with government messaging.
  • The impact of easing on growth will also be weaker than markets expect, based on past cycles.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Jan 2022 Omicron Takes its Toll on Japanese Activity, Despite a Boost to Exports

  • Japanese manufacturing activity strengthened in January, likely on the back of external demand.
  • Soaring Covid cases have hit Japan's services sec- tor; surging hospitalisations will worry China..
  • Price pressures picked up again, though the Japanese consumer is unlikely to notice much.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

  • China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
  • The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
  • We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

  • Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
  • Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
  • Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.12.21 - Slower growth in November as infrastructure bides its time

The property sector slowdown intensified in November

Investment struggles, led by real estate

Industrial production improves but still underwhelms

The Singles Day hangover hits retail sales

Liquidity day from the PBoC

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

  • Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
  • Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
  • Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

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