Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

intervention

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

  • China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
  • Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
  • Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Dec 2021 China Finds Seasonal Cheer in November Inflation

  • Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
  • ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
  • Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

  • The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
  • Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
  • Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Oct 2021 Policy Intervention Curbs China's Coal Prices, but Risks Remain

  • The Chinese authorities continue to battle the underlying causes of the energy crisis.
  • A combination of tariff hikes and coal price reductions has brought an end to shortages, for now...
  • ... but heading into the winter, heating needs will jump, renewing pressure on generators.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2021 Evergrande and PBoC Scramble to Reassure, but Doubts Remain

  • Evergrande's vague statement won’t cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now...
  • ...More will be needed from both parties, though, particularly with dollar debt default still looming.
  • BoJ green policy has potential, but it needs fiscal support to be realised.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence