Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

interbank

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 July 2021 PBoC RRR Cut versus Fed Taper is a False Dichotomy

From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 July 2021 An RRR Cut Addresses Immediate Problems, it's not a Broad Easing

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

25 June 2021 The Larger PBoC Reverse Repo Injection is Just Housekeeping

The PBoC injected RMB 30B through seven-day reverse repos yesterday, breaking with the more than three-month stretch in which the Bank routinely injected just RMB 10B.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 June 2021 Monetary Conditions Finally Look to be Stabilising

The PBoC has had its foot off the brake for most of this year so far, following tightening through the second half of 2020, culminating in its efforts to shake out speculative activity through a spike in interbank markets in January. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

21 May 2021 Questions are Being Answered for China, but Some Remain

The PBoC has slowed up on the pace of tightening in recent months, with a question mark hanging over the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 May 2021 Fiscal Hawkishness is Tightening Monetary Conditions

M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 May 2021 The PBoC's Digital Yuan is Just Another Way of Keeping Control

We have to admit that the speed of China's recovery outpaced our initial expectations last year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

21 Apr 2021 Commodity and House Prices are Top of the PBoC's Watch List

The Loan Prime Rate was unchanged yesterday, at 3.85%, where it has been for a year now. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 Mar 2021 Governor Yi Gang's Remarks Imply Steady as She Goes, Not a Cut

In January this year, PBoC advisor Ma Jun pointed to bubbles in equity markets.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 Mar 2021 Equities, Sovereign Debt, PBoC Normalisation, and Battles with Ant

China's sovereign debt and equity markets have stood out globally in the last few weeks, for very different reasons.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 Mar 2021 Disappointing M1 numbers, but Still a 2021 GDP growth Uptrend

We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault,