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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

inflation target

12 May 2022 Food is Driving Up Chinese Inflation, but the Core Rate is Falling

Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.

Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.

The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.

Craig BothamChina+

9 May 2022 Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Still Won't be Satisfied

Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.

Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.

Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Apr 2022 The BoJ Fiddles While the Yen Burns, the MoF Readies the Hose

The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.

Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Apr 2022 The BoJ will Remain Indifferent as Inflation Approaches Its Target

Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...

...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.

Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Apr 2022 Plenty of Scope, and Need, for Further Easing in China

China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.

The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.

Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Mar 2022 Weaker Chinese Profit Growth Heightens Political Risks

  • Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
  • ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
  • Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

  • Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
  • ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
  • Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Mar 2022 The BoJ Splits from the Pack, as Energy Costs Climb

  • Japan is not entirely immune to global inflation shocks; CPI is rising as energy costs surge.
  • The BoJ, however, has the luxury of choosing the sort of inflation it wants, and will not be hiking.
  • Don't get too excited by rumours of a turnaround in Chinese policy; nothing much has changed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.03.2022: No surprises on inflation or monetary policy from Japan

BoJ remains accommodative despite expecting to hit its target this year

Inflation rises on energy, but underlying pressures are picking up too

Craig BothamChina+

17 Mar 2022 Japanese Export Momentum Wanes, as Global Problems Mount

  • Japanese exports bounced back in February, as holiday effects reversed, but should fade from here.
  • Challenges are growing for both demand and supply, with no clear resolution in sight for either.
  • China's property market shows no sign of recovery, and policymakers are getting nervous.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Mar 2022 Chinese Inflation Approaches a Nadir, but It's Complicated

  • Energy and food are set to drive Chinese inflation dynamics, but base effects will play a big part.
  • Global commodity prices are surging, but the link to domestic consumer prices is modest.
  • The PBoC will stay dovish, and may ease more ag- gressively, due to—not in spite of—the cost shock.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Mar 2022 The War in Ukraine Brings More Pain for Chinese Industry

  • Soaring energy prices will hit Chinese corporates harder than households, and Beijing will have to act. 
  • The PBoC will not be turning hawkish, despite the shock to inflation, instead boosting SME support. 
  • China's battle to support manufacturers is likely to renew tensions over its industrial policy this year. 

Craig BothamChina+

28 Feb 2022 Japanese Inflation is Creeping Higher, but the Target is Still Distant

  • Tokyo CPI inflation reached its highest level since December 2019 in February, and will climb further.
  • The target is still unlikely to be breached, however, and this is not the type of inflation the BoJ wants.
  • The BoK remains hawkish, despite holding rates, and the hiking cycle has further to run.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Feb 2022 A Brief Lull, but Japanese Inflation will Soon Jump, Relatively Speaking

  • A slowdown in Japanese inflation in January will be followed by a surge in March...
  • ...but the BoJ wants to see more sustainable price growth, and that means wage increases.
  • We see little that would indicate a change in the base rate this year; policy should remain easy.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Feb 2022 Pigs Might Fly, but they Bring Lower Inflation in their Wake

  • Chinese inflation continued its decline in January, thanks to base effects and weak demand.
  • The main constraint on PBoC action is worries over financial stability, not inflation.
  • China should export disinflation in 2022, a soothing balm for policymakers outside China.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

  • Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
  • Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
  • Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Feb 2022 A Trifecta of Disruptions Hits Chinese Activity in January

  • Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
  • Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
  • Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.

Craig BothamChina+

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