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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

  • Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
  • External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
  • Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Jan 2022 Service Growth is Overstated, but Inflation Really is Fading

  • China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
  • We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
  • Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Jan 2022 Regional PMIs Show Fading Inflation Despite Bottlenecks

  • Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
  • External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
  • Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Japan's Tankan survey points to an improvement in Q4, particularly outside manufacturing.

Success in containing Covid, for now, has boosted the services sector, and smaller firms are reviving.

Inflationary pressures continued to build in Q4, but will not disturb BoJ policy yet.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

  • The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
  • ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
  • ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

  • The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
  • Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
  • Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Nov 2021 Japan Continues to Go its Own Way on Inflation

  • Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
  • ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
  • Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 Aug 2021 Four Catalysts for Escape from China's Mid-Cycle Weakness

  • We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
  • Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
  • Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations, up from the trough of 8.2% in Q1 last year, leaving it easily above the 5.3% average through 2019.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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