Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

imports

3 Sept 2021 The Pitfalls and Positives for China in Korea's August Trade Numbers

  • Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
  • But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
  • More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 July 2021 Chinese Manufacturing is Underperforming; Variants or Reversal

Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 June 2021 Bottlenecks are Biting in the North East Asian Supply Chain

China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 May 2021 Are Chinese Firms Running out of Cash to Support Commodities

China's PPI inflation picked up to 6.8% in April, from March's 4.4%, and it isn't quite done yet.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 May 2021 Exports are Softening, but a More Serious Correction is in the Cards

We are waiting for a step change in China's trade surplus, back down to pre-Covid levels, but the April data left us still holding our breath.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 May 2021 The Trade Surplus Likely Began a Downshift in April

One of the big questions facing the global economy is when the trade cycle will falter.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Apr 2021 More Zoom Booming in Q1 Means a Positive Net Export Contribution

We can safely look through the plunge in China's trade surplus in the last couple of months, to $13.8B in March, from $37.9B in February.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 Apr 2021 China Facilitated the Global Goods Recovery, but that is Now Complete

China's unadjusted trade surplus could drop sharply in March, to about $31.5B, from an average of $51.5B in January/February.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 Mar 2021 China's Trade Boosted by Travel Curbs and Covid Resurgence

Everyone knows that wild base effects are coming, but China's export figures are an early warning of how strong they can be.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 Mar 2021 Caixin Services PMI Overstates the February Pain

The Caixin services PMI fell to 51.5 in February, from 52.0 in January.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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