CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 MARCH 2023: Chinese Home Prices Rise

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 FEBRUARY 2023: Chinese Housing Prices Offer Glimmers of Hope

Chinese Housing Prices Offer Glimmers of Hope

Japanese exports decline on feeble global demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 JANUARY 2023: China's New Home Prices Extend Decline

China's New Home Prices Extend Decline

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 DECEMBER 2022: China's Economy is Rocked by Covid Wave

China's Economy is Rocked by Covid Wave

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 NOVEMBER 2022: China's Home Price Decline Steepens

China's Home Price Decline Steepens in October, as Developers Come Under Pressure

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

• China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
• Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
• Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 OCTOBER 2022: Official GDP beats expectations on infrastructure support, despite property drag

China's GDP rebound stronger than expected
Industrial output boosted by unblocking of supply chains
Consumption continues to struggle under zero-Covid policy
Property drags down fixed asset investment
Home prices fall more quickly in existing home market
China trade balance remains large despite slowing export growth
Japan flash manufacturing PMI points to a gloomy outlook

Craig BothamChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

• Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
• ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
• Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Core Inflation Fades Further, Signalling Weak Demand

• Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
• Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
• Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

• After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
• The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
• Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 SEPTEMBER 2022: Stimulus and base effects boosted China's economy in August

Demand for energy during a heatwave props up industrial output

Strong, but fragile, consumption

Government spending finally lifts FAI

Still no bottom for property

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

• Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
• Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
• Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

• Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
• The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
• Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+