China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
growth
- Evergrande, and a nudge from upstairs, seem to have forced the PBoC's hand.
- A 50 bps cut to the RRR frees up funds to deal with the clean-up operation, not supercharge growth.
- More cuts will be needed, with growth likely to remain soft in Q1 of next year.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
Craig BothamChina+
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The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.
Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.
We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.
Craig BothamChina+
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
Craig BothamChina+
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
- A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
- Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
- ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
- The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
- Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
- Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.
Craig BothamChina+
- The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
- ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
- ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
- Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
- A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
- ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
- Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.
Craig BothamChina+
- No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
- The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
- Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.
Craig BothamChina+
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
Craig BothamChina+
- Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
- The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
- Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.
Craig BothamChina+
- Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
- Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
- Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.
Craig BothamChina+
- Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
- The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
- Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.
Craig BothamChina+
- A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
- Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
- The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.
Craig BothamChina+
