Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.
Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.
China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
In one line: Monetary transmission broke down in April, echoing the broader economy
Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...
...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.
Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.
The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.
Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.
In one line: Improving liquidity provision, but risk appetite is still muted
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
Japan's services PMI rebounded in March, adding to evidence of a domestic recovery in late Q1.
Unfortunately, 2022 has had a slow start, and GDP probably fell in Q1, quarter-on-quarter.
Inflation still isn't behaving as the BoJ would like, but the sands are shifting on the yen.
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