Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
- The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
- Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
- Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
- A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
- The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
- Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.
- Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
- The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
- Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.
- A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
- Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
- The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.
- Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
- Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
- Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.
- Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
- China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
- The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.
Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.
Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.
July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.
PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.
M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.
Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference.
China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations, up from the trough of 8.2% in Q1 last year, leaving it easily above the 5.3% average through 2019.
We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date, year-over-year rate for fixed assets all slowing.