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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Apr 2022 Plenty of Scope, and Need, for Further Easing in China

China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.

The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.

Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Apr 2022 Whether China Sneezes, or Locks Down, Asia Catches a Cold

  • China's lockdowns and other restrictions weighed on regional activity in March, particularly exports.
  • Factory closures in China have tightened some bottlenecks, but others may have loosened.
  • The war in Ukraine has added to cost pressures, and worse is to come on both fronts.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Mar 2022 The War in Ukraine Brings More Pain for Chinese Industry

  • Soaring energy prices will hit Chinese corporates harder than households, and Beijing will have to act. 
  • The PBoC will not be turning hawkish, despite the shock to inflation, instead boosting SME support. 
  • China's battle to support manufacturers is likely to renew tensions over its industrial policy this year. 

Craig BothamChina+

22 Feb 2022 A Winter Chill in East Asia in Early February, but a Thaw is Coming

  • Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
  • Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
  • Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Feb 2022 A Brief Lull, but Japanese Inflation will Soon Jump, Relatively Speaking

  • A slowdown in Japanese inflation in January will be followed by a surge in March...
  • ...but the BoJ wants to see more sustainable price growth, and that means wage increases.
  • We see little that would indicate a change in the base rate this year; policy should remain easy.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Feb 2022 China Weighs on Japanese Exports, but Weakness is Overstated

  • Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
  • ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
  • We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Feb 2022 Pigs Might Fly, but they Bring Lower Inflation in their Wake

  • Chinese inflation continued its decline in January, thanks to base effects and weak demand.
  • The main constraint on PBoC action is worries over financial stability, not inflation.
  • China should export disinflation in 2022, a soothing balm for policymakers outside China.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

  • Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
  • Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
  • Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Feb 2022 Regional Manufacturing Faces a Drag from China

  • Regional manufacturing PMIs have diverged in recent months, thanks to Chinese factory closures.
  • Japan and Korea likely will converge towards China, but should be cushioned by external demand.
  • China's employment situation is getting worse, but policymakers are staying the course, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Feb 2022 Korean PMIs Lend Further Support to Strong External Demand Picture

  • Korea's manufacturing sector is having a happy new year, despite Omicron outbreaks.
  • The PMI survey provides encouraging signs for global demand, with new export orders bouncing...
  • ...It also points to an easing of some bottlenecks, with more to come as stockpiling fades.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Feb 2022 Korean Exports are Doing Better than the Data Suggest

  • Korean exports indicate continued strong external demand, despite the January slowdown.

    Holiday distortions and base effects weigh on the year-over-year number.

    Bottlenecks, and Chinese factory closures, are the main risks to the outlook.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Feb 2022 A Trifecta of Disruptions Hits Chinese Activity in January

  • Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
  • Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
  • Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Jan 2022 Omicron Takes its Toll on Japanese Activity, Despite a Boost to Exports

  • Japanese manufacturing activity strengthened in January, likely on the back of external demand.
  • Soaring Covid cases have hit Japan's services sec- tor; surging hospitalisations will worry China..
  • Price pressures picked up again, though the Japanese consumer is unlikely to notice much.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Jan 2022 Underlying Inflation Pressures are Already Fading in Japan

  • Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
  • Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
  • External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

  • Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
  • External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
  • Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Jan 2022 Chinese Inflation is Past the Peak, and Set to Plunge

  • China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
  • Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
  • Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Jan 2022 Service Growth is Overstated, but Inflation Really is Fading

  • China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
  • We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
  • Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Jan 2022 Regional PMIs Show Fading Inflation Despite Bottlenecks

  • Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
  • External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
  • Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.

Craig BothamChina+

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