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A better number, but worse composition
Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.
We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.
Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese GDP shrank in Q1, thanks to Covid at home, and abroad, but should recover in Q2.
Both consumption and investment have scope for significant catch-up, aided by fiscal stimulus.
Chinese house prices fell again in April, as attempts at shoring up the sector struggle to find purchase.
Japanese growth should bounce back in Q2
China’s property sector is still deteriorating
We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.
Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.
China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.
The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.
April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.
Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.
Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.
Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.
China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.
The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.
The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.
A dilemma for policymakers
Factory closures weighed on industrial production
Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer
The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out
We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten.
Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked.
Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far.
The low point for CPI inflation this year has been reached
Producer pain is building once again
A softer end to 2021 than originally thought for Japan
Covid plays whack-a-mole with Japan's economy
More PBoC liquidity at the same price, but February is still a dry month, for now
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