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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

fresh food

28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

  • Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
  • ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
  • The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

  • Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
  • ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
  • Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Core Inflation Fades Further, Signalling Weak Demand

  • Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
  • Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
  • Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

  • Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
  • Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
  • Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

  • Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
  • The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
  • Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

11 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Food Alone Pushes Inflation Higher, and Disinflation Awaits for China

Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.

PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.

China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

25 July 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Growth Flags Again, Thanks to Resurgent Covid Cases

Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.

Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.

Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

27 June 2022 Yen Weakness will Keep Inflation Above Target; the BoJ Won't Care

Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.

We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.

But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.

Craig BothamChina+

30 May 2022 The Excitement is Over for Japanese Inflation, and the BoJ

Inflation is stabilising in Japan, after its April surge, and we do not expect much movement from here.

Yen weakness has partially reversed, thanks to U.S. data, easing the pressure on the BoJ.

Chinese industry is under pressure, particularly the private sector, and policy offers only limited support.

Craig BothamChina+

23 May 2022 Back Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Won't Change Tack

Japan’s CPI inflation is finally back above its 2% target, but this won’t prompt a change from the BoJ.

The surge has been driven almost entirely by base effects, rather than any pick-up in demand.

Falling rates in China, aimed at propping up the property sector, will have little effect.

Craig BothamChina+

12 May 2022 Food is Driving Up Chinese Inflation, but the Core Rate is Falling

Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.

Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.

The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.

Craig BothamChina+

9 May 2022 Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Still Won't be Satisfied

Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.

Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.

Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

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