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Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises...
...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged.
China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again.
The BoK hiked by 25bp, worried about inflation becoming entrenched.
Alongside the hike, however, the central bank also sounded a more dovish note.
The BoK is finally conceding the downside risks to growth, and we think the cycle has nearly peaked.
China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon.
The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate.
Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023.
In one line: Still the wrong kind of inflation for the BoJ
Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.
PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.
China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.
Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.
Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence