28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

• Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
• ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
• The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

• China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
• Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
• Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

• Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
• ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
• Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Core Inflation Fades Further, Signalling Weak Demand

• Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
• Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
• Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

• Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
• Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
• Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

• Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
• The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
• Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+