Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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fixed asset investment

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 Aug 2021 Four Catalysts for Escape from China's Mid-Cycle Weakness

  • We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
  • Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
  • Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 June 2021 Local Government Spending is Reviving... Begrudgingly

We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date, year-over-year rate for fixed assets all slowing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 May 2021 Japan's Q1 Capex Disappoints, but Greater Optimism is Warranted

Japan's GDP contracted in Q1, by 1.3% quarter- on-quarter, after the 2.8% increase in Q4.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 May 2021 Fiscal Hawkishness is Tightening Monetary Conditions

M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 Apr 2021 Inflation is Beside the Point for the BoJ, Global Yields will Dictate Policy

The BoJ press conference focused on inflation, which is a red herring, in terms of the drivers of policy changes over the next couple of years.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 Apr 2021 IP and Retail Sales Kept Q1 GDP Growth High, Quarter-on-Quarter

Covering China is often like being a data detective, fitting together the pieces of the puzzle to try to work out what is going on.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Apr 2021 More Zoom Booming in Q1 Means a Positive Net Export Contribution

We can safely look through the plunge in China's trade surplus in the last couple of months, to $13.8B in March, from $37.9B in February.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 Mar 2021 Further BoJ Retreat from Abenomics, but Not Tightening

We've long held the view that the BoJ was looking for the right opportunity to ease the burden of its perma-accommodation on the financial sector.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 Mar 2021 China's Supply-Demand Mismatch is Rebuilding, but it's Temporary

Reader, beware. We will give you our conclusions upfront because this Monitor gets very technical, but China's January/February activity figures warrant that.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Mar 2021 2021 Economic Targets are Mainly Pretty Dovish for a Kettle of Hawks

The focus in commentary so far, following the Government Work Report—GWR—has been on the GDP growth target, which was set at "above 6%", after no target was set last year due to uncertainty.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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