Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

factories

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure Boost may not Come in Time to Salvage Q3

Industrial production growth slowed sharply in July; no signs yet of infrastructure picking up the slack.

Delta is adding to the recent misery in retail sales; a Q3 GDP growth downgrade is now on the cards.

Japan's economy stabilised in the second quarter despite the rolling Covid hit and soft lockdowns.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 June 2021 Local Government Spending is Reviving... Begrudgingly

We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date, year-over-year rate for fixed assets all slowing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 Apr 2021 BoJ Forecasts are Due an Upgrade; Lowballing is the Order of the Day

The BoJ likely will leave policy unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday next week, following the policy review in March.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 Apr 2021 IP and Retail Sales Kept Q1 GDP Growth High, Quarter-on-Quarter

Covering China is often like being a data detective, fitting together the pieces of the puzzle to try to work out what is going on.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Apr 2021 More Zoom Booming in Q1 Means a Positive Net Export Contribution

We can safely look through the plunge in China's trade surplus in the last couple of months, to $13.8B in March, from $37.9B in February.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 Mar 2021 China's Supply-Demand Mismatch is Rebuilding, but it's Temporary

Reader, beware. We will give you our conclusions upfront because this Monitor gets very technical, but China's January/February activity figures warrant that.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Mar 2021 Don't Underestimate Base Effects in China's February Activity Data

Forecasters are gradually easing into the implications of the hugely favourable base effects emanating from the impact of Covid in China early last year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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