Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
- ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
- Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.
- Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
- ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
- Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.
- Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
- War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
- The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
- ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
- Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.
- Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
- Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
- Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.
- Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
- ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
- We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.
- Regional manufacturing PMIs have diverged in recent months, thanks to Chinese factory closures.
- Japan and Korea likely will converge towards China, but should be cushioned by external demand.
- China's employment situation is getting worse, but policymakers are staying the course, for now.
Korean exports indicate continued strong external demand, despite the January slowdown.
Holiday distortions and base effects weigh on the year-over-year number.
Bottlenecks, and Chinese factory closures, are the main risks to the outlook.
- Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
- Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
- Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.
- Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
- External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
- Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.
- China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
- Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
- Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.