China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
factories
- Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
- ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
- Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.
Craig BothamChina+
- Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
- ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
- Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.
Craig BothamChina+
- Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
- War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
- The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.
Craig BothamChina+
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
- ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
- Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.
Craig BothamChina+
- Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
- Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
- Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
- ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
- We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.
Craig BothamChina+
- Regional manufacturing PMIs have diverged in recent months, thanks to Chinese factory closures.
- Japan and Korea likely will converge towards China, but should be cushioned by external demand.
- China's employment situation is getting worse, but policymakers are staying the course, for now.
Craig BothamChina+
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Korean exports indicate continued strong external demand, despite the January slowdown.
Holiday distortions and base effects weigh on the year-over-year number.
Bottlenecks, and Chinese factory closures, are the main risks to the outlook.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
- Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
- Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
- External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
- Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
- Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
- Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.
Craig BothamChina+
