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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

factories

29 Mar 2022 Weaker Chinese Profit Growth Heightens Political Risks

  • Chinese industry faces rising costs, both from global markets and domestic Covid policies...
  • ...Coupled with weaker demand, this implies that profitability will be under heavy pressure this year.
  • Policy efforts to support China's struggling firms will likely raise tensions with trading partners.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

  • Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
  • ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
  • Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Mar 2022 Korean Exports Falter as Demand and Supply Issues Bite

  • Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
  • War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
  • The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Feb 2022 Ukraine, Energy Prices a Bigger Worry than Awkwardness for China

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
  • ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
  • Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Feb 2022 A Winter Chill in East Asia in Early February, but a Thaw is Coming

  • Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
  • Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
  • Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Feb 2022 China Weighs on Japanese Exports, but Weakness is Overstated

  • Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
  • ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
  • We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Feb 2022 Regional Manufacturing Faces a Drag from China

  • Regional manufacturing PMIs have diverged in recent months, thanks to Chinese factory closures.
  • Japan and Korea likely will converge towards China, but should be cushioned by external demand.
  • China's employment situation is getting worse, but policymakers are staying the course, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Feb 2022 Korean Exports are Doing Better than the Data Suggest

  • Korean exports indicate continued strong external demand, despite the January slowdown.

    Holiday distortions and base effects weigh on the year-over-year number.

    Bottlenecks, and Chinese factory closures, are the main risks to the outlook.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Feb 2022 A Trifecta of Disruptions Hits Chinese Activity in January

  • Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
  • Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
  • Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

  • Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
  • External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
  • Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Jan 2022 Chinese Inflation is Past the Peak, and Set to Plunge

  • China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
  • Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
  • Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence