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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

external demand

28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

  • After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
  • The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
  • Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

  • Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
    in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
  • Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
  • ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

  • Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
  • ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
  • Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Japan Faces a Growing Trade Deficit, Despite the Weaker Yen

Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.

Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.

Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Weak Credit Growth Highlights a Structural Problem for China

Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.

Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.

The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Food Alone Pushes Inflation Higher, and Disinflation Awaits for China

Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.

PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.

China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor External Headwinds Build for China, and the Renminbi will Suffer

China’s current account balance fell in Q2, despite strong trade balance figures.

The hit from the income account is unlikely to be repeated, but tailwinds are fading.

Export growth must slow, and compression of demand can’t go much further.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

25 July 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Growth Flags Again, Thanks to Resurgent Covid Cases

Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.

Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.

Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.

Craig BothamChina+

22 July 2022 China+ Monitor No Change or Action on the Yen, Now or Next Year, from the BoJ

Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.

The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.

Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

24 June 2022 Japan's Domestic Recovery Starts to Lose Momentum

Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.

The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.

Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.

Craig BothamChina+

16 June 2022 China's Reopening Rebound Gets Going, but Watch New Cases

Reopening has proceeded faster than we expected in China, prompting a larger immediate rebound.

Industrial production in particular has benefitted from a return to normal, and an export backlog.

Subsidies helped to prop up retail sales, but likely reallocated, rather than boosted, consumption.

Craig BothamChina+

13 June 2022 Price and Money Data Show Demand is Still Weak in China

Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.

Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.

Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

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