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PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.
Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.
Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.
July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.
PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.
M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.
China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.
The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.
The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.
China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...
... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.
More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.
In one line: Breaking out of their recent rut?
Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.
Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.
Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.
Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's.
In one line: Caixin PMI held back by Covid in the south of China
China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.
The PBoC injected RMB 30B through seven-day reverse repos yesterday, breaking with the more than three-month stretch in which the Bank routinely injected just RMB 10B.
The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".
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