CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.01.22 - Higher Japanese inflation masks deterioration in the core, Omicron weighs on global trade

Core inflation pressures ebb in Japan

Korea signals an export slowdown in January

Craig BothamChina+

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

• Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
• External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
• Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.01.22 - Japanese exports slow and Chinese rates fall

External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects

Bank lending rates follow the MLF down

Craig BothamChina+

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

• Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
• The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
• ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

• China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
• Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
• Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14.01.22 - Another record Chinese trade surplus masks worrying signs for demand

Trade data points to weaker Chinese demand

A hawkish hike from the BoK

Craig BothamChina+

22 Dec 2021 Korean Export Data Signal a Soft End to the Year

• Slower Korean export growth in December rounds off a quarter of deceleration.
• Supply constraints remain an issue, but demand is also fading from the post-lockdown boom.
• Rising Covid cases globally have added to head- winds, and risk a bleak midwinter.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.12.21 - Korean 20-day exports slow again

The pandemic export boom fades further

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16.12.21 - Japanese trade jumps, but domestic momentum is slowing

Further hope that bottlenecks are easing

Manufacturing output growth slows

Service sector slips from two-year high

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 07.12.21 - Chinese demand ramps up

The first decline in China’s trade balance in nine months

Exports suggest regional supply chain recovery

Chinese imports boosted by energy demand, but also tell a reassuring story about momentum - and infrastructure

Craig BothamChina+

2 Dec 2021 Bottlenecks Continued to Ease on the Eve of Omicron

• Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
• Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
• The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

• October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
• ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
• China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

• Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
• Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
• Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.11.21 Hope for growth from the PBoC and Korean exports

Preliminary Korean data gives reason for hope on trade, despite the slowdown

PBOC stands pat, but easing is on the way - just not for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

• Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
• ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
• We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.11.21 Japanese exports slow, but there's cause for optimism

Look through the year-over-year headlines, and there’s hope among the weeds

Craig BothamChina+