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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

exports

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 08 AUGUST 2022: An upside surprise, but Chinese exports are losing momentum at last

Chinese trade continues to surprise to the upside

China's FX reserves recover slightly, but have further to fall

Craig BothamChina+

9 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Subsidies Shore up Chinese Exports, but Pressure is Building

China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...

...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.

Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor External Headwinds Build for China, and the Renminbi will Suffer

China’s current account balance fell in Q2, despite strong trade balance figures.

The hit from the income account is unlikely to be repeated, but tailwinds are fading.

Export growth must slow, and compression of demand can’t go much further.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 AUGUST 2022: The boost from China's reopening is over

The manufacturing boost from reopening is over

Services are flagging again as restrictions tighten

Korean manufacturing also points to a receding tide

Don't be deceived by Korea's export bounce

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

22 July 2022 China+ Monitor No Change or Action on the Yen, Now or Next Year, from the BoJ

Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.

The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.

Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 JULY 2022: A temporary reprieve for trade data

A more downbeat BoJ stays on hold

A welcome upside surprise for Japanese trade

Korean 20-day trade recovers, but the trend is still slowing

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01 JULY 2022: China's back, but global trade is slowing

Inflation retreats unexpectedly in Japan

Korea points to slowing global trade

Korean manufacturing wobbles

Chinese manufacturing recovery confirmed

Craig BothamChina+

22 June 2022 The Trade Boost from China's Reopening is Fading Already

Preliminary export data from Korea look terrible for global trade, but in reality are merely quite bad.

Distortions from China’s zero-Covid policies affect the data, with the reopening boost now fading.

The slowdown trend in exports is still intact, and will likely be echoed in global trade data for June.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 JUNE 2022: A slip from Korean exports

Not as terrible as they appear, but still pretty bad

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 JUNE 2022: China's reopening helps global trade, but not its property market

Japan benefits from China's reopening

China's property market is still dropping

Craig BothamChina+

16 June 2022 China's Reopening Rebound Gets Going, but Watch New Cases

Reopening has proceeded faster than we expected in China, prompting a larger immediate rebound.

Industrial production in particular has benefitted from a return to normal, and an export backlog.

Subsidies helped to prop up retail sales, but likely reallocated, rather than boosted, consumption.

Craig BothamChina+

13 June 2022 Price and Money Data Show Demand is Still Weak in China

Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.

Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.

Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.

Craig BothamChina+

10 June 2022 China's Trade Balance is Proving More Resilient than Expected

Chinese exports rebounded in May on the back of the country’s reopening, post-Omicron.

A more muted recovery of import growth meant that the trade balance rose further into surplus.

We still expect a decline in the surplus this year, but policy is working hard to mitigate this.

Craig BothamChina+

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