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Japanese exports slow less than expected
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
Chinese trade continues to surprise to the upside
China's FX reserves recover slightly, but have further to fall
China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...
...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.
Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.
China’s current account balance fell in Q2, despite strong trade balance figures.
The hit from the income account is unlikely to be repeated, but tailwinds are fading.
Export growth must slow, and compression of demand can’t go much further.
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
The manufacturing boost from reopening is over
Services are flagging again as restrictions tighten
Korean manufacturing also points to a receding tide
Don't be deceived by Korea's export bounce
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.
The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.
Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.
A more downbeat BoJ stays on hold
A welcome upside surprise for Japanese trade
Korean 20-day trade recovers, but the trend is still slowing
The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.
China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.
Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.
Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.
Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.
Inflation retreats unexpectedly in Japan
Korea points to slowing global trade
Korean manufacturing wobbles
Chinese manufacturing recovery confirmed
Preliminary export data from Korea look terrible for global trade, but in reality are merely quite bad.
Distortions from China’s zero-Covid policies affect the data, with the reopening boost now fading.
The slowdown trend in exports is still intact, and will likely be echoed in global trade data for June.
Not as terrible as they appear, but still pretty bad
Japan benefits from China's reopening
China's property market is still dropping
Reopening has proceeded faster than we expected in China, prompting a larger immediate rebound.
Industrial production in particular has benefitted from a return to normal, and an export backlog.
Subsidies helped to prop up retail sales, but likely reallocated, rather than boosted, consumption.
Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.
Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.
Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.
Chinese exports rebounded in May on the back of the country’s reopening, post-Omicron.
A more muted recovery of import growth meant that the trade balance rose further into surplus.
We still expect a decline in the surplus this year, but policy is working hard to mitigate this.
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