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Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.
Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.
Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.
Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.
China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.
Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.
Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.
Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push inflation, and should feed through to output prices.
The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.
China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.
Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...
...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.
Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.
China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.
Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.
The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.
Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.
Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.
Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.
Preliminary export data from Korea look terrible for global trade, but in reality are merely quite bad.
Distortions from China’s zero-Covid policies affect the data, with the reopening boost now fading.
The slowdown trend in exports is still intact, and will likely be echoed in global trade data for June.
Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us.
Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation.
Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade.
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
Japanese exports slowed more than expected in April, thanks to China’s lockdowns.
The disruption to regional supply chains, stemming from factory closures in China, was also visible.
It is getting harder to argue that the yen’s weakness is a net positive, as imports ex-China climb higher.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence