Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

export orders

8 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Trade Surplus Barely Rises, as Exports Slow

  • China’s export data for October indicate weakening global demand, especially in the U.S. and E.U.
  • The goods trade surplus widened only slightly, as imports held up relatively well.
  • FX reserves rose in October, with more going on than accounted for by the official explanation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

  • Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
  • The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
  • Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

  • Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
    in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
  • Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
  • ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Zero-Covid is Weighing on Chinese Growth Once Again

  • China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
    economic momentum in August.
  • Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
  • The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

  • Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
  • ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
  • Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor The Global Slowdown is Catching Up with Japan

Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.

Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.

Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Global Demand is Fading Fast, and China Won't Ride to the Rescue

Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.

China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.

Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

22 July 2022 China+ Monitor No Change or Action on the Yen, Now or Next Year, from the BoJ

Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.

The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.

Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

22 June 2022 The Trade Boost from China's Reopening is Fading Already

Preliminary export data from Korea look terrible for global trade, but in reality are merely quite bad.

Distortions from China’s zero-Covid policies affect the data, with the reopening boost now fading.

The slowdown trend in exports is still intact, and will likely be echoed in global trade data for June.

Craig BothamChina+

6 June 2022 China will Export Disinflation, not Inflation, despite New Stimulus

Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us. 

Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation. 

Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade. 

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

20 May 2022 Japanese Trade Gets Pinched by China's Zero-Covid Vice

Japanese exports slowed more than expected in April, thanks to China’s lockdowns.

The disruption to regional supply chains, stemming from factory closures in China, was also visible.

It is getting harder to argue that the yen’s weakness is a net positive, as imports ex-China climb higher.

Craig BothamChina+

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