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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

export data

11 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Credit Data Disappoints, due to Weak Private Sector Demand

  • China’s October credit data were below expectations, due to a weak economy, the Party Congress...
  • ...The Congress likely disrupted policy-based credit extension for quasi-fiscal projects.
  • China is still caught in a liquidity trap, with credit growing more slowly than M2 again in October.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Trade Surplus Barely Rises, as Exports Slow

  • China’s export data for October indicate weakening global demand, especially in the U.S. and E.U.
  • The goods trade surplus widened only slightly, as imports held up relatively well.
  • FX reserves rose in October, with more going on than accounted for by the official explanation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The BoJ is not for Turning, Despite Rising Inflation

  • The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
    rest of 2022...
  • ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
  • Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor An Unsustainable Rebound for Japanese Growth in September

  • Japan learns to live with Covid, but must still contend with slower global growth, and bad weather.
  • The renminbi is tumbling, along with every other currency, but capital flight risks compel PBoC action.
  • Rumours of a coup in China are based on a rogue Twitter account, and should be discounted.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Property Stimulus Starts to Show in the Data, but Much More is Needed

  • August was another bad month for China’s property
    sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
  • Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
  • More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

  • Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
    in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
  • Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
  • ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

  • Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
  • ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
  • Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Probably Slowed Further in August, Say the PMIs

  • Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
  • Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
  • The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Global Demand is Fading Fast, and China Won't Ride to the Rescue

Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.

China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.

Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Japan Faces a Growing Trade Deficit, Despite the Weaker Yen

Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.

Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.

Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Weak Credit Growth Highlights a Structural Problem for China

Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.

Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.

The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

22 July 2022 China+ Monitor No Change or Action on the Yen, Now or Next Year, from the BoJ

Thursday’s BoJ meeting followed the usual script, with added emphasis from Governor Kuroda.

The central bank’s current forecasts imply no change in policy until 2024, at least.

Early Korean export data suggest global demand is still waning, and China’s reopening boost is over.

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

4 July 2022 Global Trade is Slowing, Creating Another Headwind for China

The Caixin manufacturing PMI confirmed a healthy rebound for China in June.

Domestic demand, however, remains weak, and data from Korea suggest external demand is fading.

Japanese inflation surprised to the downside in June, reinforcing the BoJ’s dovish position.

Craig BothamChina+

22 June 2022 The Trade Boost from China's Reopening is Fading Already

Preliminary export data from Korea look terrible for global trade, but in reality are merely quite bad.

Distortions from China’s zero-Covid policies affect the data, with the reopening boost now fading.

The slowdown trend in exports is still intact, and will likely be echoed in global trade data for June.

Craig BothamChina+

7 June 2022 The Metric Chinese Policymakers Care About Most is Yet to Recover

Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.

We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.

Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.

Craig BothamChina+

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