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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

energy prices

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 NOVEMBER 2022: China's Home Price Decline Steepens

China's Home Price Decline Steepens in October, as Developers Come Under Pressure

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 OCTOBER 2022: Official GDP beats expectations on infrastructure support, despite property drag

China's GDP rebound stronger than expected
Industrial output boosted by unblocking of supply chains
Consumption continues to struggle under zero-Covid policy
Property drags down fixed asset investment
Home prices fall more quickly in existing home market
China trade balance remains large despite slowing export growth
Japan flash manufacturing PMI points to a gloomy outlook

Craig BothamChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

  • Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
  • ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
  • Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Core Inflation Fades Further, Signalling Weak Demand

  • Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
  • Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
  • Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

  • After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
  • The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
  • Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Korean Exports: Better than they Look, but Still Terrible

  • Holiday effects exaggerated the weakness of Korean exports in September...
  • ...But global demand evidently is cooling; nominal trade data are inflated by energy prices.
  • China is now clearly a significant drag on global growth, as stimulus focuses on supply over demand.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

  • Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
  • The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
  • We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

  • Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
  • Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
  • Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 SEPTEMBER 2022: Stimulus and base effects boosted China's economy in August

Demand for energy during a heatwave props up industrial output

Strong, but fragile, consumption

Government spending finally lifts FAI

Still no bottom for property

Craig BothamChina+

16 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor The External Picture Deteriorates for a Helpless Japan

  • Japan’s trade deficit blew out in August, thanks to energy costs and a falling yen.
  • Exports are softer than they seem, flattered for now by price and base effects, but slowing at the margin.
  • Yen weakness is worrying policymakers, but it can’t be fixed by unilateral intervention.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

  • Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
    in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
  • Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
  • ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

  • Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
  • ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
  • Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Probably Slowed Further in August, Say the PMIs

  • Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
  • Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
  • The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

  • Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
  • The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
  • Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor

The BoK hiked by 25bp, worried about inflation becoming entrenched. 

Alongside the hike, however, the central bank also sounded a more dovish note. 

The BoK is finally conceding the downside risks to growth, and we think the cycle has nearly peaked. 

Craig BothamChina+

24 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor The Global Slowdown is Catching Up with Japan

Japanese manufacturing and services both slowed this month, according to the flash PMI surveys.

Fading global demand is taking its toll on Japanese manufacturing, after a short hiatus.

Covid is the main headwind for the services sector, but not the only one, so any revival will be brief.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Global Demand is Fading Fast, and China Won't Ride to the Rescue

Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.

China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.

Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

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