China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
energy
- China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
- Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
- Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
- The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
- Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.
Craig BothamChina+
- Holiday effects exaggerated the weakness of Korean exports in September...
- ...But global demand evidently is cooling; nominal trade data are inflated by energy prices.
- China is now clearly a significant drag on global growth, as stimulus focuses on supply over demand.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
- The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
- We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
- Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
- Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan’s trade deficit blew out in August, thanks to energy costs and a falling yen.
- Exports are softer than they seem, flattered for now by price and base effects, but slowing at the margin.
- Yen weakness is worrying policymakers, but it can’t be fixed by unilateral intervention.
Craig BothamChina+
- Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
- Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
- Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
- Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
- ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.
Craig BothamChina+
- Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
- ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
- Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.
Craig BothamChina+
- Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
- Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
- The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.
Craig BothamChina+
