Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Japanese manufacturing activity strengthened in January, likely on the back of external demand.
- Soaring Covid cases have hit Japan's services sec- tor; surging hospitalisations will worry China..
- Price pressures picked up again, though the Japanese consumer is unlikely to notice much.
- Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
- Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
- External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.
- China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
- Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
- Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.
- Tokyo CPI inflation reached a two-year high in December, thanks largely to energy prices.
- Inflation will climb further yet, but will still fall short of the BoJ's 2% target.
- Chinese reserves data show the PBoC has been leaning against renminbi appreciation.
- China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
- We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
- Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.
- Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
- External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
- Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.
Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.
Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.
Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.
November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.
Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.
Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.
- Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
- ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
- Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
- ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
- China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.
- Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
- Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
- The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
- ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
- We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
- China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
- ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
- The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
- Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
- Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
- We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.