Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

energy

11 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Food Alone Pushes Inflation Higher, and Disinflation Awaits for China

Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.

PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.

China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.

Craig BothamChina+

9 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Subsidies Shore up Chinese Exports, but Pressure is Building

China reported another record trade surplus in July, thanks to surprisingly strong export growth...

...but exports are starting to slow, at the margin, and still face structural headwinds this year.

Generous government subsidies cannot hold back the tide indefinitely, and risk political blowback.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

25 July 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Growth Flags Again, Thanks to Resurgent Covid Cases

Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.

Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.

Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.

Craig BothamChina+

18 July 2022 A False Dawn in June Data, as China's Economy Shrinks in Q2

Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.

June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.

Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

7 July 2022 Chinese Inflation will Climb, but the PBoC Won't React

Chinese CPI inflation is set to rise until Q4, but it’s still a very different story to the West.

Inflation is unlikely to spend any time above target, and will retreat in 2023, with PPI entering deflation.

The PBoC will not need to tighten policy, but other constraints prevent aggressive easing.

Craig BothamChina+

28 June 2022 Chinese Profits Under Pressure, and Stimulus is Still Lacking

Chinese industrial profits fell again in May, despite the reopening from lockdown. 

Government support likely propped up profits in some sectors, demand still looks weak. 

The PBoC is injecting liquidity again, but this is about quarter-end management, not stimulus. 

Craig BothamChina+

27 June 2022 Yen Weakness will Keep Inflation Above Target; the BoJ Won't Care

Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.

We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.

But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.

Craig BothamChina+

24 June 2022 Japan's Domestic Recovery Starts to Lose Momentum

Japanese manufacturing slowed further in June, likely reflecting weakening global demand.

The service sector extended its recovery from the Omicron-induced lows, but will peak soon.

Price pressures rose further, but the labour market still looks soft, so no change likely from the BoJ.

Craig BothamChina+

20 June 2022 No Change from the BoJ, Defying Market Speculation on YCC

The BoJ stood pat on Friday, leaving policy settings unchanged, despite pressure on the yen and JGBs. 

Governor Kuroda was at pains to assert the primacy of growth and inflation as drivers of monetary policy. 

Currency volatility, rather than weakness, bothers the BoJ, warranting only limited intervention. 

Craig BothamChina+

13 June 2022 Price and Money Data Show Demand is Still Weak in China

Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.

Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.

Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.

Craig BothamChina+

10 June 2022 China's Trade Balance is Proving More Resilient than Expected

Chinese exports rebounded in May on the back of the country’s reopening, post-Omicron.

A more muted recovery of import growth meant that the trade balance rose further into surplus.

We still expect a decline in the surplus this year, but policy is working hard to mitigate this.

Craig BothamChina+

7 June 2022 The Metric Chinese Policymakers Care About Most is Yet to Recover

Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.

We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.

Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.

Craig BothamChina+

6 June 2022 China will Export Disinflation, not Inflation, despite New Stimulus

Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us. 

Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation. 

Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade. 

Craig BothamChina+

30 May 2022 The Excitement is Over for Japanese Inflation, and the BoJ

Inflation is stabilising in Japan, after its April surge, and we do not expect much movement from here.

Yen weakness has partially reversed, thanks to U.S. data, easing the pressure on the BoJ.

Chinese industry is under pressure, particularly the private sector, and policy offers only limited support.

Craig BothamChina+

27 May 2022 A New Hawk Perches Atop the BoK, but we Doubt Rates can Truly Soar

The BoK hiked rates as expected, to 1.75%, and revised inflation forecasts sharply higher.

Governor Rhee insisted that monetary policy must focus on inflation, despite slowing growth.

A return to neutral implies hikes at every meeting this year, but the BoK looks too bullish on growth.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

24 May 2022 A Reprieve for Korean Exports, but Global Trade Probably won't Follow

Korean exports accelerated in May, but this is unlikely to herald a broader global revival.

The data also suggest a partial recovery in China, as restrictions ease, but energy prices are a key driver.

The renminbi has gained on dollar weakness, and hopes of tariff reductions, but it will weaken again.

Craig BothamChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence