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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

energy

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

  • After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
  • The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
  • Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Korean Exports: Better than they Look, but Still Terrible

  • Holiday effects exaggerated the weakness of Korean exports in September...
  • ...But global demand evidently is cooling; nominal trade data are inflated by energy prices.
  • China is now clearly a significant drag on global growth, as stimulus focuses on supply over demand.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

  • Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
  • The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
  • We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

  • Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
  • Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
  • Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor The External Picture Deteriorates for a Helpless Japan

  • Japan’s trade deficit blew out in August, thanks to energy costs and a falling yen.
  • Exports are softer than they seem, flattered for now by price and base effects, but slowing at the margin.
  • Yen weakness is worrying policymakers, but it can’t be fixed by unilateral intervention.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

  • Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
    in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
  • Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
  • ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

  • Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
  • ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
  • Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Probably Slowed Further in August, Say the PMIs

  • Official survey data point to falling output from China’s factories, and slower services activity.
  • Construction activity also apparently is faltering, suggesting infrastructure stimulus is waning.
  • The National Congress is coming in October; President Xi, and zero-Covid, are going nowhere.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence