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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

energy

25 Jan 2022 Omicron Takes its Toll on Japanese Activity, Despite a Boost to Exports

  • Japanese manufacturing activity strengthened in January, likely on the back of external demand.
  • Soaring Covid cases have hit Japan's services sec- tor; surging hospitalisations will worry China..
  • Price pressures picked up again, though the Japanese consumer is unlikely to notice much.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Jan 2022 Underlying Inflation Pressures are Already Fading in Japan

  • Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
  • Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
  • External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

  • China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
  • Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
  • Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Jan 2022 Energy Leads Japanese Inflation Higher in December

  • Tokyo CPI inflation reached a two-year high in December, thanks largely to energy prices.
  • Inflation will climb further yet, but will still fall short of the BoJ's 2% target.
  • Chinese reserves data show the PBoC has been leaning against renminbi appreciation.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Jan 2022 Service Growth is Overstated, but Inflation Really is Fading

  • China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
  • We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
  • Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Jan 2022 Regional PMIs Show Fading Inflation Despite Bottlenecks

  • Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
  • External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
  • Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Dec 2021 China Finds Seasonal Cheer in November Inflation

  • Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
  • ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
  • Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

  • October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
  • ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
  • China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Nov 2021 An Energy Boost Quickens the Pulse of Japanese Inflation

  • Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
  • The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

  • Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
  • ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
  • We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

  • China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
  • Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
  • The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Nov 2021 Logistical Pressures Build as Covid Reaches Another Port City

  • China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
  • ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
  • The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

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