Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Japanese manufacturing activity strengthened in January, likely on the back of external demand.
- Soaring Covid cases have hit Japan's services sec- tor; surging hospitalisations will worry China..
- Price pressures picked up again, though the Japanese consumer is unlikely to notice much.
- Japanese headline inflation picked up in December, but core measures lost momentum.
- Early Korean trade data point to a weak start to 2022 for global trade, thanks in part to Omicron.
- External demand should rebound swiftly, but the bigger risk is disruption to Chinese production.
- The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
- Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
- Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.
- Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
- The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
- ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.
- China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
- Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
- Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.
- China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
- The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
- We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.
- Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
- Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
- Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.
- Slower Korean export growth in December rounds off a quarter of deceleration.
- Supply constraints remain an issue, but demand is also fading from the post-lockdown boom.
- Rising Covid cases globally have added to head- winds, and risk a bleak midwinter.
Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.
Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.
Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.
November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.
Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.
Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.
- Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
- Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
- Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.
- Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
- ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
- Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.
- Evergrande, and a nudge from upstairs, seem to have forced the PBoC's hand.
- A 50 bps cut to the RRR frees up funds to deal with the clean-up operation, not supercharge growth.
- More cuts will be needed, with growth likely to remain soft in Q1 of next year.
- Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
- Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
- The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
- Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
- The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
- Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
- ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
- We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.