12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

• New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
• ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
• We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Economy Likely Hit a Bottom in October, as Policy Shifts

• China’s economy suffered the October blues, due to Covid measures and Congress disruptions.
• Reviving the domestic economy is crucial, with exports trending down on a gloomy global outlook.
• Basic shifts in Covid and property policies will pave the way for a gradual growth recovery in 2023.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

• China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
• Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
• Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

7 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Slower Global Growth has its Positives when Inflation is a Worry

• The September PMIs confirmed that global growth, and trade, are slowing, or even falling.
• The good news is that inflationary pressures are also fading, as weaker demand eases supply constraints.
• Japan’s domestic economy saw a healthy bounce in September, after a spike in Covid cases in August.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

• After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
• The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
• Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

• Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
• Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
• Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Headwinds are Building for the Renminbi, as Exports Face Reality

• Chinese export growth slowed more than expected
  in August, as reality catches up after reopening.
• Export growth should continue to weaken, and import compression looks mostly played out...
• ...This means that the last support for the renminbi is crumbling, at a pivotal moment.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Cold Autumn, and Colder Winter, Looms for Global Exporters

• Korean export growth slowed again in August, and was worse than the headline...
• ...coupled with downbeat regional manufacturing PMIs, the outlook for global trade is bleak.
• Inflationary pressures are at least receding, along with demand, bringing a measure of relief.

Craig BothamChina+