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Early Korean export data suggest that global trade is still slowing, particularly if energy is excluded.
China’s Omicron lockdown and reopening distorted the data, but the underlying trend is clear, and grim.
Chinese easing efforts still look inadequate, but the central government is finally stepping in.
China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon.
The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate.
Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023.
Markets have responded optimistically to news of a
Chinese property rescue fund...
...But the sums involved are too small to save the sector, and likely have more modest aims.
The growing role of the central government is nonetheless an encouraging signal; more is needed.
We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.
The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.
Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.
Chinese activity continued its reopening recovery in June, particularly outside manufacturing.
The surveys point to month-on-month growth, but not enough to save GDP from a quarterly decline.
More stimulus is needed to sustain this bounce, with households and SMEs still under pressure.
China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.
Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.
Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence