Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

deposits

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 July 2021 Savings Data Suggest Households are Loosening the Purse Strings

Our analysis reveals that GDP growth in the first half may have been significantly stronger than billed.

In particular, the household savings rate dropped sharply, back to pre-pandemic trends.

Households now need to run down wealth, if the recovery is to continue.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

24 May 2021 China's Reopening Story Remains in Tact Despite Slow M1 Growth

Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 May 2021 Fiscal Hawkishness is Tightening Monetary Conditions

M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 May 2021 CPI Inflation will Soon Point to Higher Yields, But not Yet

April CPI inflation—to be released next Tuesday— likely picked up to around 0.6%, from 0.4% in March.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence