12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

• New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
• ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
• We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Tokyo Inflation Speeds up on Food Price Hikes

Tokyo headline CPI accelerated further in November, on the back of food price rises... 

...But the BoJ is likely to view domestic demand as still weak, and so leave monetary policy unchanged. 

China’s RRR cut is mainly about funding fiscal policy to cushion growth, as Covid cases surge again. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

• China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
• Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
• Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+