China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
credit
- New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
- ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
- We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Credit Plunges in December, Before a Likely Upturn in Early 2023
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s October credit data were below expectations, due to a weak economy, the Party Congress...
- ...The Congress likely disrupted policy-based credit extension for quasi-fiscal projects.
- China is still caught in a liquidity trap, with credit growing more slowly than M2 again in October.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: The liquidity trap hasn't eased yet
Craig BothamChina+
- After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
- The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
- Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.
Craig BothamChina+
- August was another bad month for China’s property
sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
- Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
- More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
- Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
- Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.
Craig BothamChina+
In one line: No sign of China's liquidity trap easing up
Craig BothamChina+
