Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.
More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.
Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.
China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.
Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.
Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.
Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.
Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.
Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.
In one line: Valuation effects spare the PBoC's blushes
China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.
We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.
The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.
Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.
China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
In one line: Monetary transmission broke down in April, echoing the broader economy
China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.
The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.
Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.
In one line: Improving liquidity provision, but risk appetite is still muted
In one line: Banks don’t want to lend, and households don’t want to borrow
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