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In one line: The liquidity trap hasn't eased yet
In one line: No sign of China's liquidity trap easing up
Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.
Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.
The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.
Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.
Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.
The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.
Markets have responded optimistically to news of a
Chinese property rescue fund...
...But the sums involved are too small to save the sector, and likely have more modest aims.
The growing role of the central government is nonetheless an encouraging signal; more is needed.
China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.
Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.
Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.
We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.
The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.
Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.
Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.
More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.
Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.
China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.
Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.
Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.
Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.
Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.
Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.
In one line: Valuation effects spare the PBoC's blushes
China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.
We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.
The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.
Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.
We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.
The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.
Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.
The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.
New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.
We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.
Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.
China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.
China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence