Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

credit

11 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Credit Data Disappoints, due to Weak Private Sector Demand

  • China’s October credit data were below expectations, due to a weak economy, the Party Congress...
  • ...The Congress likely disrupted policy-based credit extension for quasi-fiscal projects.
  • China is still caught in a liquidity trap, with credit growing more slowly than M2 again in October.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: Money and Credit, China, September

In one line: The liquidity trap hasn't eased yet

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

  • After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
  • The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
  • Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Property Stimulus Starts to Show in the Data, but Much More is Needed

  • August was another bad month for China’s property
    sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
  • Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
  • More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Stimulus Efforts are Visible, but China's Liquidity Trap Still Binds

  • Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
  • Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
  • Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Money and Credit, China, August

In one line: No sign of China's liquidity trap easing up

Craig BothamChina+

16 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor From Fireworks in June to a Damp Squib in July for Chinese Growth

Chinese activity has slowed sooner than expected; the reopening rebound has failed to gain traction.

Supply-side stimulus measures are the wrong prescription for an economy lacking demand.

The PBoC delivered surprise easing yesterday, but it looks half-hearted, and will achieve little.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Weak Credit Growth Highlights a Structural Problem for China

Chinese money growth was better than expected in July, but credit growth disappointed.

Private sector loan demand looks ever weaker, suggesting a limit to gains from monetary easing.

The PBoC is preparing to pare back, with financial stability risks the most likely consideration.

Craig BothamChina+

27 July 2022 China+ Monitor China's Property Rescue Fund will not be a Cure-All

Markets have responded optimistically to news of a

Chinese property rescue fund...

...But the sums involved are too small to save the sector, and likely have more modest aims.

The growing role of the central government is nonetheless an encouraging signal; more is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

21 July 2022 China+ Monitor Monetary Policy Can't Save China, as Borrowers Go on Strike

China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the PBoC’s passive streak.

Monetary easing would have little effect at the moment, with loan demand falling.

Credit is increasingly being used to plug balance sheets, rather than support productive activity.

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

21 June 2022 Monetary Policy Remains On Hold in China, Despite the Slowdown

Policy rates remain on hold in China, alongside a broader pause in monetary easing.

More accommodative policy seems unlikely to drive growth, given lacklustre credit demand.

Monetary policy needs fiscal help, if it is to regain traction, and not add to financial risks.

Craig BothamChina+

17 June 2022 Keep an Eye on Chinese Property, Amidst the Focus on Zero-Covid

China’s property market took another tumble in May, despite policy efforts to steady the ship.

Buyers are unlikely to return while so many developers look fragile, and employment is under pressure.

Real estate will be a headwind to economic growth for the rest of the year, and likely beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

13 June 2022 Price and Money Data Show Demand is Still Weak in China

Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.

Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.

Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Money and Credit Growth, China, May

In one line: Valuation effects spare the PBoC's blushes

Craig BothamChina+

8 June 2022 The PBoC Remains Cautious, Despite the Push for Growth

China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.

We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.

The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

25 May 2022 Japanese Manufacturing Falters in May, as External Demand Softens

Japanese flash PMIs for May show a domestic recovery facing headwinds from external factors.

The most obvious culprit is China’s zero-Covid policy, with restrictions loosening only slowly.

New stimulus from China is underwhelming, but, importantly, contains new money this time.

Craig BothamChina+

17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

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