Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

credit

12 Jan 2023 China+ Monitor Plunging New Credit Precedes Likely Revival from Early 2023

  • New aggregate financing plummeted in December as China was buffeted by gigantic Covid waves...
  • ...But big cities appear to be past the worst, and many other regions are following close behind...
  • We expect a marked rebirth of credit demand post-Chinese New Year, building in Q2 onwards.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 JANUARY 2023: New Credit Plunge Precedes Likely Upturn

Credit Plunges in December, Before a Likely Upturn in Early 2023

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Credit Data Disappoints, due to Weak Private Sector Demand

  • China’s October credit data were below expectations, due to a weak economy, the Party Congress...
  • ...The Congress likely disrupted policy-based credit extension for quasi-fiscal projects.
  • China is still caught in a liquidity trap, with credit growing more slowly than M2 again in October.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: Money and Credit, China, September

In one line: The liquidity trap hasn't eased yet

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Industrial Profits are Only Headed One Way in China

  • After a bumper pandemic, Chinese industrial profits are set for a prolonged decline.
  • The manufacturing sector, particularly the privately owned part, faces rising costs and weaker demand.
  • Weaker profits growth means weaker revenue growth for local governments, adding to their woes.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Property Stimulus Starts to Show in the Data, but Much More is Needed

  • August was another bad month for China’s property
    sector, with sales, starts, and prices all falling.
  • Bailout funds are visible in the data, but so far have only moved the needle from “terrible” to “very bad”.
  • More money is needed to break the downward spiral trapping the sector, and restore market confidence.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Stimulus Efforts are Visible, but China's Liquidity Trap Still Binds

  • Chinese credit growth slowed in August, even as liquidity continued to pile up.
  • Private sector demand for credit is still weak, leaving the government to drive borrowing and activity.
  • Property bailout funds propped up credit demand in August, but this effect will fade soon.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Money and Credit, China, August

In one line: No sign of China's liquidity trap easing up

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence