Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

cpi

29 Nov 2021 An Energy Boost Quickens the Pulse of Japanese Inflation

  • Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
  • The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 26.11.21 An upside surprise for Tokyo CPI, a new Covid wave starts in China

Stronger inflation reflects global supply pressures rather than domestic demand

Zero Covid is struggling in the colder months, and will create a renewed service sector drag

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19.11.21 Few surprises from Japanese inflation

Another month dominated by transitory effects for Japanese prices

Kishida starts his new term with a Big Bang

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10.11.21

Soaring vegetable prices drive consumer price inflation to a one-year high

Producer price inflation becomes more widespread as energy shock works through

Craig BothamChina+

4 Nov 2021 China Experiences the Wrong Sort of Green Growth

  • Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
  • Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
  • A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Nov 2021 Japan Continues to Go its Own Way on Inflation

  • Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
  • ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
  • Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 29.10.21

Tokyo inflation lends credence to BoJ messaging

Another day, another injection, another last minute payment

Craig BothamChina+

28 Oct 2021 A Brief Interlude for Chinese Industrial Profits

  • Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
  • ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
  • Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Oct 2021 Renminbi Gains are Unlikely to Provoke a Strong Response

  • Renminbi appreciation has stoked concerns over possible policy intervention.
  • The authorities may lean against appreciation, but a big devaluation is not on the cards.
  • Depreciation is more likely in 2022, as growth and rate stories diverge.

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 22.10.21

  • A return to headline inflation for Japan masks ongoing core deflation.

    Surprising strength from the manufacturing PMI.

    The axe is yet to fall for Evergrande.

Craig BothamChina+

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.10.21

  • Evergrande and energy take a bite out of GDP growth
  • The energy crunch is also visible in industrial production data
  • Broad based investment slowdown
  • Retail sales

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

  • Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
  • The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
  • Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14.10.21

  • Energy shortages push PPI to fresh heights while food remains the dominant theme for CPI

    The immediate impact is felt by industry, but it will spread

Craig BothamChina+

6 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions Add to Transitory Inflation Pressures

  • A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
  • ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5.10.21

  • Japanese inflation lurches to life, but transitory factors still dominate

    Chinese property market stress spreads as another developer misses a dollar bond payment

    USTR leads with bark and no bite, for now

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

20 Sept 2021 Will the PBoC Waver from its Early Normalisation Path?

Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...

... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.

The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence