China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
core inflation
- Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
- ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
- The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
- Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
- Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
rest of 2022...
- ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
- Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
- ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
- Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
- Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
- Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.
Craig BothamChina+
- Headline Tokyo CPI inflation fell in September on base effects, but core inflation climbed further.
- Yen weakness is driving up raw material costs, and these are now being passed on to consumers.
- Korean factories are struggling as exports falter, but the BoK will likely still have to tighten aggressively.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
- The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
- Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
- The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
- We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
- Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
- Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.
Craig BothamChina+
- Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
- Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
- Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.
Craig BothamChina+
- China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
economic momentum in August.
- Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
- The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.
Craig BothamChina+
