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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core inflation

21 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Inflation is Picking up on Higher Import Costs

  • Japanese headline CPI rose sharply in October, on the back of food price hikes...
  • ...But the BoJ is likely to keep monetary policy loose, expecting core inflation to wane in fiscal year 2023.
  • The PBoC warned about future inflationary risk in China, as bond markets responded to policy shifts.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 Nov 2022 China+ Monitor China's Consumer Price Inflation Rolls Over in October

  • China’s CPI inflation rolled over in October, owing to weak domestic demand and labour market slack.
  • Overall food price rises decelerated, despite pork price rises speeding up.
  • Producer prices began to fall, year-over-year, on slowing energy prices and weak demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor The BoJ is not for Turning, Despite Rising Inflation

  • The BoJ acknowledges higher CPI inflation for the
    rest of 2022...
  • ...But continues to forecast a drop in the core rate to below the 2% target in late 2023.
  • Nothing in the Tokyo CPI data will make the BoJ change its assessment.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Headline Inflation Set to Rise as Food Prices Heat up

  • Japan’s headline CPI is expected to resume rising in October, thanks to food price increases...
  • ...But the BOJ will stick to easy monetary policy, given the lacklustre core inflation and wage outlook.
  • Korean 20-day exports for October indicated still-worsening global demand. 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Chinese Core Inflation Fades Further, Signalling Weak Demand

  • Weak demand is still weighing on inflation in China, with only food prices pushing CPI higher.
  • Consumer inflation likely has now peaked, and PPI is headed to deflation over the next six months.
  • Chinese policy will have the—likely unintended— effect of exporting disinflation globally.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Oct 2022 China+ Monitor Core Inflation Starts to Heat Up in Japan, but It's Mostly the Yen

  • Headline Tokyo CPI inflation fell in September on base effects, but core inflation climbed further.
  • Yen weakness is driving up raw material costs, and these are now being passed on to consumers.
  • Korean factories are struggling as exports falter, but the BoK will likely still have to tighten aggressively.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor FX Intervention Begins, as the BoJ Feigns Innocence

  • Japan has embarked on direct currency intervention in support of the yen for the first time since 1998.
  • The main goal of this intervention is to slow the pace of depreciation, rather than draw a line in the sand.
  • Monetary policy will be kept at its current easy settings, undermining any attempt to defend a level.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Yen Weakness will Continue to Push Japanese Inflation Higher

  • Japanese inflation continues to climb, driven by cost-push pressures and base effects.
  • The BoJ will not change tack, despite the multi-year high in CPI inflation.
  • We expect Governor Kuroda to hold the line on both inflation and the yen at tomorrow’s meeting.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Better Late than Never for China's Reopening Bounce

  • Chinese economic data for August surprised to the upside, compensating for a poor July.
  • Some of the strength is genuine, thanks to stimulus efforts, but base effects played a role.
  • Most of the tailwinds are unlikely to last more than a month, so we expect slower growth in September.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor A Miss for Chinese Inflation, as a Lukewarm Economy Cools Further

  • Inflation is falling faster than expected in China, a sign that demand is flatlining.
  • Food is the only source of inflationary pressure remaining, and faces government intervention.
  • Talk of monetary policy space, however, sadly is meaningless in a liquidity trap.

Craig BothamChina+

6 Sept 2022 China+ Monitor Zero-Covid is Weighing on Chinese Growth Once Again

  • China’s Caixin Services PMI confirmed a loss of
    economic momentum in August.
  • Zero-Covid measures are tightening again, and no significant easing is likely in the next two months.
  • The PBoC is fighting to defend the renminbi, which further limits its ability to help the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Inflation Climbed Again in August, but the BoJ Likely Will Double-Down

  • Tokyo CPI inflation rose more than expected in August, thanks to food, energy, and base effects.
  • The BoJ will likely feel more, not less, dovish, as higher food and energy prices weigh on demand.
  • Japan remains unique; policymakers will welcome rising household inflation expectations.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor

The BoK hiked by 25bp, worried about inflation becoming entrenched. 

Alongside the hike, however, the central bank also sounded a more dovish note. 

The BoK is finally conceding the downside risks to growth, and we think the cycle has nearly peaked. 

Craig BothamChina+

22 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Signs of a Revival for Chinese Real Estate

China’s property market is still in a tailspin, with no relief visible on the immediate horizon. 

The central government still refuses to get involved, and local government resources are inadequate. 

Japanese CPI inflation rose again in July, but the BoJ will remain on hold through 2023. 

Craig BothamChina+

11 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Food Alone Pushes Inflation Higher, and Disinflation Awaits for China

Chinese CPI inflation has reached a two-year high, but is still below target, and set to cool.

PPI inflation continues to fall on base effects and lower energy and industrial commodity prices.

China will be a source of disinflation, and even deflation, over the next twelve months.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor No Change from Policymakers in Japan or China on the Horizon

Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation was marginally stronger than expected, but still driven by cost-push factors.

Yen weakness should relieve pressure on the BoJ, and confirms an outlook of policy stability into 2024.

China’s Politburo has emphasised zero-Covid over growth, with few signals of significant stimulus.

Craig BothamChina+

25 July 2022 China+ Monitor Japanese Growth Flags Again, Thanks to Resurgent Covid Cases

Japan had been recovering reasonably well from its Omicron wave, but a new outbreak now looms.

Growth is already under pressure, even before official restrictions are rolled out.

Inflation looks manageable, especially with demand pressures now waning.

Craig BothamChina+

14 July 2022 The BoK Approaches the End of the Road with a Pre-emptive Hike

The BoK hiked by 50bp, but managed to sound dovish about the path ahead.

China’s trade balance hit a record surplus in June, driven by ongoing reopening dynamics.

Domestic demand is falling, with fiscal stimulus still too limited to provide a boost, rather than a floor.

Craig BothamChina+

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