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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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26 Nov 2021 An Expected Hike from the BoK, and Now a Long Pause

  • The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.

    Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.

    We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

  • China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
  • Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
  • The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Nov 2021 Japan Continues to Go its Own Way on Inflation

  • Japanese inflation remains anaemic, no matter which way you slice it...
  • ...as a result, Japan looks increasingly isolated among developed market economies.
  • Monetary policy divergence will become more pronounced, with consequences for the currency.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

  • Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
  • Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
  • Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Oct 2021 China's Cost Shock Creates Problems Everywhere

  • Surging factory gate prices have just begun to re- flect recent energy shocks.
  • The Chinese consumer may be shielded from the energy hit, but China's economy will still suffer.
  • Global spillovers seem likely, with further cost in- creases to come as winter looms.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

22 Sept 2021 Evergrande: No Big Bailout, but no Lehman Moment, Either

  • Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets...
  • …But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment.
  • Beijing can contain the worst, but the blow to land prices and confidence means slower growth ahead.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

20 Sept 2021 Will the PBoC Waver from its Early Normalisation Path?

Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...

... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.

The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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